巴西队能否夺冠或将影响十月总统大选
Brazilian president Dilma Rousseff, of the Workers’ Party (PT), began the World Cup with approval ratings below forty percent. This has fallen continually from sixty percent before last year’s Confederations Cup, which was rocked by protests over corruption and misuse of public money in preparation for the events.
据巴西《里约时报》网站报道,本届世界杯开幕时,来自劳工党的巴西总统迪尔玛·罗塞夫(Dilma Rousseff)支持率已低于40%。而去年联合会杯前其支持率高达60%,由于屡屡受到抗议活动的冲击,这一数字之后持续下降。抗议集中于腐败行为和世界杯筹备期间的公款滥用。
A study by Ibope showed that approval ratings for Dilma had fallen to 34 percent. No Brazilian president has ever won an election with less than 35 percent support, and at the very least levels of popularity below forty percent suggest the elections would go to a second round with one of the PT’s main rivals, the Brazilian Social Democratic Party, or PSDB, headed by Aécio Neves, or the Brazilian Socialist known as the PSB Party of Eduardo Campos and Marina Silva.
据Ibope机构一项研究显示,罗塞夫的支持率已跌至34%。巴西历届总统赢得大选时支持率从未低过35%,退一步说,受欢迎度在40%以下就表示劳工党将与自己的一位主要对手进行第二轮选举,这位对手可能是阿埃西奥·内维斯(Aécio Neves)领导的巴西社会民主党(Brazilian Social Democratic Party),亦或是爱德华多·坎波斯(Eduardo Campos )和玛丽娜·席尔瓦(Marina Silva)的巴西社会主义党(Brazilian Socialist Party,PSB)
“In many ways the World Cup is the electoral campaign by proxy… The Rousseff government is being portrayed as lacking leadership and ability to plan efficiently,” explained Carlos Caicedo, Senior Principal Analyst for Latin America at IHS Security Risk to The Rio Times. “The staging of a successful World Cup would be critical to prove critics wrong. A World Cup fiasco is certain to cost votes to Rousseff and the PT.”
“世界杯在许多方面代表了选举活动……罗塞夫政府被认为缺乏领导能力,做不出高效的计划,”信息处理服务公司(IHS)拉美高级首席分析师卡洛斯·凯塞多(Carlos Caicedo)解释道:“世界杯的成功举办将有力证明那些批评是错的,而惨败的话,罗塞夫和劳工党的票数也必然损失严重。”
During the opening game, played in São Paulo’s Itaquerão stadium last Thursday, the president was met with choruses of vulgar chants. Anger at Rousseff and the PT is widespread, with popular demonstrations taking place simultaneously across the country, with widespread protesting in São Paulo and over a thousand people on the streets of Rio de Janeiro.
6月13日在圣保罗伊塔盖拉球场举行的揭幕战期间,罗塞夫遭到球迷脏话“问候”。民众对她和劳工党的愤怒到处可见:全国各地同时发起的示威,圣保罗遍地的抗议活动,以及里约热内卢州一千多人的街头游行。
Recent surveys show that over sixty percent of Brazilians think the World Cupwould be bad for Brazil, a dramatic fall since 2007 when Brazil won the bid, when as much as 79 percent of the population believed it would contribute positively to the country.
最近的调查皆表明,超六成巴西人认为世界杯对巴西不利,而2007年巴西赢得主办权时,79%的民众相信这场盛事肯定会对国家有所贡献,该数字的下降颇具戏剧性。
For many Brazilians, nothing short of a victory – Brazil’s sixth in World Cup history – would be enough to convince them that the controversy was worth it. The loss for Brazil “increases the risk that disgruntled fans, together with anti-World Cup protesters, get together to stage demonstrations… exacerbating the declining trend in popularity of the Rousseff government,” continued Caicedo.
对许多巴西人来说,在世界杯上第六次夺冠这样的胜利完全能让其相信此类争论是值得的。而巴西输了的话,“怨愤的球迷与世界杯反对者聚集发起示威的风险就会增加……罗塞夫政府民众支持率持续下降的趋势也会加剧。”凯塞多继续说道。
In her televised speech on the eve of the opening game, President Rousseff defended the handling of the event and promised Brazilians that the World Cup would leave a lasting legacy for them. “The airports, the metros, the BRTs and the stadiums won’t return in the tourists’ luggage. They will stay here, benefiting all of us.”
在揭幕战前夜的电视讲话中,罗塞夫总统为举办这场盛事进行了辩解,向巴西人民承诺世界杯会给他们留下永久的遗产。“机场,地铁,快速公交系统和各处体育场都不会被游客打包带走,它们会留在这里,造福我们所有人。”
In response to the charge that this money would be better spent on public services such as health or education, she highlighted that Brazil spent 212 times more on health and education (R$1.7 trillion) than the R$8 billion spent on stadiums, and defended her government’s legacy.
有指控称花在世界杯上的钱用于医疗、教育等公共服务上会更好,罗塞夫回应时强调,巴西在医疗教育上的开支为1.7万亿巴西雷亚尔,是体育场建设(80亿巴西雷亚尔)的212倍。同时,她也为政府的政绩辩护。
“Our country produced one of the most successful processes of wealth redistribution, employment rises and social inclusion,” she explained, with inequality diminishing significantly as 36 million Brazilians were taken out of poverty by policies such as Bolsa Família.
“我们的国家自创了一套最有效的方法,成功用在了财富再分配,提高就业以及社会融合上,”她阐述道,“诸如家庭补助金之类的政策帮助了3600万巴西人民脱贫,不平等现象得到了大大改善。”
The PSDB and PSB have remained largely quiet on the issue of the World Cup. As Caicedo explained, “the opposition is waiting for the right moment to take the government to task for all the glaring inefficiencies and marked improvisation.”
社会民主党和社会主义党则在世界杯问题上大体保持沉默。凯塞多解释说:“反对派正在等待,时机成熟,他们就会针对政府一切有目共睹的低效行为和临场应变做出批评。”
However, following Rousseff’s televised speech, the PSDB declared their intention to enter a legal challenge for using the opening of the World Cup as electoral propaganda. “This is using public money to make a political campaign,” said Aécio Neves.
不过,在罗塞夫的电视讲话之后,社会民主党声称打算对其提出法律质疑,理由是怀疑罗塞夫将世界杯开幕式用作选举宣传。“此举就是在用公款进行政治竞选,”阿埃西奥·内维斯表示。
(译者 鱼丽之宴 编辑 齐磊)
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