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Slowing GDP growth within govt tolerance

Updated: 2013-07-15 15:35
( Xinhua)

Data showed that consumption contributed 45.2 percent, investment 53.9 percent and net exports 0.9 percent to first-half GDP growth.

Xu Lianzhong, an economist from the price monitoring center of the National Development and Reform Commission, said the former growth pattern that focused on investment and exports cannot be sustained, adding that reforms on the financial system and the urbanization process should be further promoted.

China's exports and imports took surprising tumbles in June. Exports dropped 3.1 percent year on year to $174.32 billion, while imports declined 0.7 percent from a year earlier to $147.19 billion, according to the General Administration of Customs.

"Europe is still struggling to recover from a steep downturn and the quantitative easing in the global economy will add to uncertainties," said Zhuang Jian, an economist at the Asian Development Bank.

The tourism sector felt the pain directly. For instance, cruise lines on the Yangtze River received significantly fewer tourists in the first six months.

"The number of tourists declined more than 20 percent," said Qin Xinqiao, executive deputy general manager of a cruise line based in Central China's Hubei province.

Despite the difficulties, the economic dynamics remains unchanged, said Sheng Laiyun.

Li Daokui, a former adviser to China's central bank, projected that future growth will be driven by the supply of quasi-public products such as urban infrastructure, air cleaning and water treatment.

The biggest risk China faces is not slower growth but an over-reliance on past growth models, according to Zhang Monan, a researcher with the State Information Center, a government think tank.

Premier Li Keqiang has given some suggestions on dealing with the conundrum.

"Economic operations should be managed in such a way that ensures that the growth rate, employment and other indicators don't slip below the lower limit and inflation does not exceed the upper limit. In such circumstances, the country can focus on restructuring and reform," he said in a speech delivered during an inspection tour of South China last week.

Li's speech did not define the government's limits, but some economists believe that the economy can still expand by around 7 percent without government stimulus.

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