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'No room for over-optimism' for economy

Updated: 2012-12-12 00:43
By WEI TIAN ( China Daily)

On the same day, the People's Bank of China announced that new yuan-denominated lending, which reached 522.9 billion yuan ($83.71 billion) in November, was down 40 billion yuan year-on-year, together with a broad money supply that grew 13.9 percent, slightly lower than estimated.

Although missing market expectations of 550 billion yuan, the new loan figure was up from the 505.2 billion yuan of new yuan loans registered in October, according to the central bank.

The bank also said total social financing, a measure of funds raised by entities in the real economy, stood at 1.14 trillion yuan last month, up 183.7 billion yuan from a year earlier.

"These data suggest that monetary policy remained loose in November," said Zhang Zhiwei, economist with Nomura Securities Co Ltd. "However, we do not believe that the current loose policy stance is sustainable throughout 2013. Financial risks in the trust loan sector are mounting."

The promising data were also in line with the consumer price index released by the National Bureau of Statistics over the weekend, which picked up slightly to 2.0 percent in November from 1.7 percent in October, but experts warned that it's too early to bet on the upward trend.

Huang Libin, an official from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, said companies have to deal with rising costs.

Although the profits for large enterprises increased 0.5 percent year-on-year in the first 10 months, 15 percent of them had reported losses, three percentage points higher than the previous year, he said.

"Although there is an overall upward trend in the economy, the foundation is not yet solid," Huang said, adding that the government should continue adopting fiscal policies aimed at boosting domestic demand.

Lu Zhengwei, chief economist with Industrial Bank Co Ltd, said the recovery will go into reverse in the next year if the stimulus fails to play its role.

Large enterprises are seeing a mixed situation amid the warming economy, and smaller enterprises face even harsher conditions.

Hu Yuanyuan contributed to this story.

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