Doomsayers underrate economy's resilience

Poor economic performances brew discouraging forecasts. So there have been quite a few scenarios for China's setback in 2014, based on its slowdowns in January and February.

Indeed, the country would be in deep trouble - if its size were limited to that of Sichuan province and Chongqing municipality (equivalent to France), or if all its business activities were centered on the Shanghai Stock Exchange.

Predictions of China's property bubble bust premature

Economy to grow steadily in 2014

But the reality is that the country is still far from being cornered by the problems people spot at the moment: From a massive industrial machine no longer driven by enough orders from both internal and external markets, to many investment projects failing to generate expected returns.

Thanks to its large size and complexity, China can still afford some more time to digest the lessons of the recent global recession. It can still experiment with a multitude of new policies and laws - not just one or two. Over the next couple of years people will be able to see whether or not these adjustments work.

For the time being, it is unlikely that all of China's industry completely runs out of orders when there is mild recovery of the global market.

Chinese manufacturers usually have widespread connections and are quick to learn. They are not easily replaced by companies from elsewhere.

Nor would it be possible for the real estate market to crash in all cities at the same time. The first-tier cities, where the large real estate developers and large banks are based, are still far away from a general collapse in their housing prices.

Yes, there will be defaults, but the so-called "scary" default that some people are talking about will be largely limited to local governments, many of them city governments, and investment funds with specific industry focus. Monthly slowdowns and regional defaults will be reported on a more regular basis. But they are trivia when compared with the need to build the country's framework for future economic development.

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