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Good results derived from strict requirements
On September 19, 2009, Chen and a group of scientists from the Chinese Geophysical Society successfully predicted the precise location of a catastrophic landslide in Chongqing. Because they recognized the precursory signs, the early warning bought enough time for people in high-risk areas to prepare themselves, which avoided a tragedy before the China’s 60th National Day.
In July 2014, Chen took a special trip to Yunnan to discuss and analyze the possible earthquake in Zhaotong-Dongchuan-Kunming areas with local scientists and government officials. On August 3, an earthquake measuring a 6.5 in magnitude struck Ludian, and Chen’s earthquake predictions once again proved useful to both government planners and the general population.
However, errors are unavoidable.
A point-to-point comparison showed defects (a 6-d and 0.4-magnitude error) in his prediction of the magnitude 7.4 Tajikistan earthquake on December 7, 2015.
“Strong earthquake prediction must strictly follow the rule of ‘point-to-point comparison’ to ensure that the prediction is as close as the factual result, which is the very goal of my life’s work,” Chen said.
The day he joined the Institute of Earthquake Prediction, Chen’s academic adviser, Professor Li Zhijun, instructed him that only by enduring loneliness and living a simple life can a person go further in seismological studies.
Chen abided by his adviser’s instruction and for decades, his home and his lab are the only two destination points of his daily route and an 18-hour day is his normal working time.
“I devote myself to pieces of seemingly ordinary data to find clues for an accurate prediction,” Chen said about his motivations. “I do these to seek the most precise result and for the sake of saving more lives from natural disasters.”
