Last Thursday, city newspapers published front page photos about Chaoyang police raiding four nightclubs for prostitutes, including Heaven Earth nightclub. More than 500 people, allegedly engaged in prostitution, were detained and the four nightclubs were ordered to suspend business for six months. Police said they would not tolerate entertainment venues that organize and facilitate prostitution.

Since the municipal bureau of public security initiated a crackdown on prostitution on April 1, Chaoyang police have raided more than 400 KTV halls, bathhouses, unlicensed salons and foot massage centers in the district. They announced prostitution in the area has dropped by 30 percent compared with the same period last year.

There are no precise statistics on exactly how many women are engaged in prostitution in Beijing. In one night's raid, 557 women were arrested at four nightclubs in Chaoyang district. Insiders said the total number of prostitutes employed at the four clubs should be more than 800, but some might have escaped or were not working that night. Regardless, with more than 400 KTV halls in the capital, I estimate the number of prostitutes is estimated to be about 100,000.

These women rent hundreds of thousands of apartments in Beijing, with three sharing one place on average. Real estate experts often fail to take into account their demand for housing and don't realize that the group has an impact on housing price.

If the police continue their crackdown, many of these women will leave the city within the next three months. Before the end of the year, it's estimated that hundreds of thousands of apartments will reenter the market, possibly causing rental rates to take a nosedive. As a result, potential property purchasers will switch to rental options and the demand for new and second-hand housing will drop. At that point, developers will have to cut prices to make sales.

It's unlikely the public security bureau meant to make its prostitution crackdown affect the city's latest real estate adjustment policies, even less likely it meant to force real estate developers to cut housing prices. However, removing prostitutes does have a butterfly effect.

After six months, the nightclubs will reopen but few will dare to hire these women again. No matter how much they crave nightclub employment, most girls will leave the city. Some might stay, to work in office positions or as care workers and waitresses, but in my opinion, it will be hard for them to transform their lifestyles - it's easier to go from rags to riches than riches to rags. I don't think they will be content earning a monthly salary of 1,000-2,000 yuan after making more than that in a single day.

(Excerpts of a comment that appeared in the Beijing Evening News on May 14)