Looking at the third quarter's slower growth, policymakers may opt to continue with their targeted stimulus measures. The possibility is slim that they would resort to aggressive measures because the third quarter reading exceeded market expectations. The market had expected 7.2 percent growth, or even lower.
A key sector is real estate. Policymakers could further help in that area by cutting property transaction taxes and fees, or by lowering mortgage down-payment requirements. They could increase investment in infrastructure that could spill over to boost broader economic growth. And they could also moderately ease monetary policy.
Despite the slowdown, the third quarter data, especially in September, show that previous policy supports adopted this year, including increased investment in infrastructure and major projects, as well as the development of low-priced public housing, partly offset the negative effects of a continuous property downturn.
Policymakers, therefore, may continue their mini-stimulus approach.
Given the signs that the economy was trending up in September, such stimulus measures would likely bring a mild improvement in growth in the coming months. This would bring the country closer to its annual growth target, though it remains uncertain how long the expected pick-up will last and to what extent the efforts to shore up the economy can offset the blow of the weakening real estate sector if sales continue to fall.
While the market expected to see low economic readings in the third quarter, the big test will come after the fourth quarter data come out early next year.
If the economy does not recover as expected in the fourth quarter, there will be greater anxiety among investors than what we see now.
Worse, policymakers will have few safe tools in their toolbox then. They will be reluctant to use major stimulus programs, which are risky and could result, for example, in triggering an additional pile-up of local government debt, which is already a big headache.
They may opt to continue to use targeted stimulus measures on a limited scale to boost some key sectors, but the broader market may not buy such a recipe.
The author is a senior writer with China Daily. xinzhiming@chinadaily.com.cn
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