It seems Russia will not give up on eastern Ukraine, hoping it will go the Crimea way, particularly because the Geneva Statement, despite being aimed at easing tensions, is not expected to be much effective. The objective of easing tensions, as described in the Geneva Statement, may not be achieved if Russia does not withdraw its troops from its border with Ukraine. The presence of Russian troops can be intimidating for Ukraine and could fuel more trouble in the eastern part of the country.
The West cannot expect Russia to withdraw troops without lifting its sanctions and withdrawing support to Ukraine's interim government. If Ukraine's election, scheduled for May 25, throws up, as many expect, a pro-West government, the new president could expedite the process of signing the Association Agreement with the EU.
The signing of the Association Agreement will indeed be a milestone for Ukraine, paving the way for it to become an EU member in the future, but the process will be far from smooth because Russia is not likely to accept it despite having taken over Crimea.
During his visit to Kiev on April 22, US Vice-President Joe Biden pledged additional financial aid to the interim government. Besides, the Pentagon has announced that it would send hundreds of US military personnel to conduct exercises and run training camps in some East European countries. The financial aid can bring some stability to Ukraine's interim government and US troops will allay some East European countries' fears vis-a-vis Russia, but these moves cannot resolve the Ukraine crisis.
In fact, neither sanctions nor flexing of military muscles can resolve the Ukraine crisis. And since the Geneva Statement is not expected to be much effective, an end to the Ukraine crisis looks nowhere in sight. In fact, it could worsen. Given the circumstances, therefore, all parties involved should take urgent measures to find a better, and fruitful, way of easing tensions and ending the crisis in Ukraine.
The author is an associate professor at the institute of Russian, East European and Central Asian Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.
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