Responding to some people's suggestion that given the Ukraine crisis, the US should go slow with its "pivot to Asia" policy or shift its strategic emphasis to Europe, Hagel said that such a change simply wouldn't happen. The reason: in the larger context and in the long term, the Asia-Pacific remains the most important region for the US.
Third, the US is getting deeply involved in the maritime disputes in East Asia by continuing to support its allies. There is reason to suspect that it was the US that instigated the Philippines to move the Permanent Court of Arbitration to resolve the latter's maritime dispute with China in the South China Sea. This can be seen as the US' attempt to help the Philippines seize part of China's Nansha Islands.
In the Diaoyu Islands dispute in the East China Sea, the US has been helping Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's militant stance by turning a blind eye to his rightist policy of revising the Guidelines for US-Japan Defense Cooperation and increasing US-Japan joint military operations.
The impact of the Ukraine crisis is being felt on the ties of big powers, including changes in "principal contradictions". For example, it has heightened the contradictions between Russia and major Western powers. US-Russia contradictions have intensified while the contradictions between China and major Western powers have relatively eased, with Sino-US contradictions becoming less prominent.
The Ukraine crisis at best can only be a temporary strategic "distraction" for the US; it will neither contain nor postpone its "rebalancing" to the Asia-Pacific strategy at this point. At the most, it could adjust its approach to take advantage of the contradictions in the region.
The US will make greater use of its Asia-Pacific allies, especially Abe and Philippine President Benigno Aquino III, both of whom have been stoking trouble and creating confusion. The US strategy is to use the maritime disputes between China and Japan, and China and the Philippines to "contain China" with the help of its neighbors.
The Ukraine crisis is still unfolding. And the extent of its impact on the "pivot to Asia" policy of the US hinges on the outcome of the ongoing standoff between Russia and Ukraine (and the US). But one thing is for sure, the Ukraine crisis will not compel the US to change its Asia-Pacific strategy, because it is a preset guideline of the Barack Obama administration, reflected again in the latest Quadrennial Defense Review.
The author is deputy director of Institute of World Political Studies, China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations. www.chinausfocus.com
(China Daily 04/19/2014 page11)
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