A game with no winners

Regarding the legitimacy of Crimea's referendum, the principle of national self-determination is one of key principles recognized by modern international law. The UN Charter upholds this principle, proclaim-ing that self-determination ought to be enjoyed by all peoples as a basic human right. However, with most former colonies determining their independence after World War II, the traditional interpretation of the right to self-determination seems to need reconsidering as self-determination is now a domestic issue, and the abuse of the self-determination principle by some ethnic separatists can cause instability in a country.

Crimea's independence campaign has not only intensified the political crisis in Ukraine, it is also escalating tensions between Russia and the West. Russia will obviously benefit from Crimea's annexation. A strategic location, the port facilities in Crimea are of immense military importance to Russia, serving as the base for Russia's Black Sea Fleet. Through annexation, Russia will obtain the facilities permanently and will not have to pay for them. The facilities were leased to Russia by the Yanukovich administration. This lease was due to expire in 2017, but it was extended to 2042 in exchange for a substantial gas discount.

If the annexation goes smoothly, it is likely that Russia will take further measures to encourage protests in the eastern and southern parts of Ukraine, such as Luhansk, Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkov, with military pressure at the Russia-Ukraine border.

It is also probable that Russia will seek to stall Ukraine's integration with the EU in a more peaceful way by pressing for a federalization process in Ukraine, which would entitle the eastern and southern parts a veto over major foreign policy decisions, including the signing of the EU Association Agreement.

But while the annexing of Crimea has some benefits to Russia, Putin's ultimate goals are to prevent Ukraine from joining the EU and to make the whole of the country a member of his Eurasian Union.

The US and the EU have harshly criticized Russia's actions. The US and the EU have committed substantial financial aid to Ukraine, and the IMF has also resumed its bailout program. These supportive measures are conducive to ease Ukraine's emerging sovereign debt crisis as a result of poor fiscal performance since 2012.

This time the West seems somewhat weak against Russia's military maneuver and Crimea's separation. The West will not want a direct military confrontation with Russia, while sweeping economic and trade sanctions would incur too high a cost, especially for EU countries, as these countries rely heavily on energy supplies from Russia.

However, Crimea's separation indicates that the regional situation around Ukraine has become more complicated and there is a possibility for the crisis to escalate further.

The author is associate professor of the Institute of Russian, East European and Central Asian Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

Previous Page 1 2 Next Page

Previous Page 1 2 Next Page