But that is not the case with China. And considering the rapid growth rate of China's GDP and fiscal revenue, even if it develops three to five aircraft carriers in the next 20 years, its economy will not suffer.
The development of aircraft carriers has a dual impact on a country's economy. On one hand, it involves fiscal expenditure and reduces investment. On the other, it increases investment in the military industry, helps related industries develop faster, promotes technical progress, strengthens national security which is conducive to economic development, and has an overall spillover effect.
Building an aircraft carrier is a multi-tier project and needs financial guarantee. And China's rapid economic growth offers more than enough guarantee for it to develop aircraft carriers. China has the capability to build 300,000-ton ships for civil use and is the biggest shipbuilding country. So it has the monetary potential to venture into aircraft carrier development.
But building an aircraft carrier is a difficult and complicated task, because a flattop has to be attack-resistance, highly combative and environmentally suitable, for which new technology, new materials and the latest know-how are needed. Also needed is the entire nation's high-level technical support.
If China builds an aircraft carrier, it will help upgrade the military industry's technology, and expand the repairing and maintenance industries for flattops. Also, it will directly benefit high-end equipment manufacturing and high-end material industries, and the air-armament and information systems.
Though the conventional dynamic technology industry will be the first to develop, nuclear-power technology for aircraft carriers will be the future trend. The need for special materials to build aircraft carriers will help upgrade that particular sector of the high-end materials industry. Similarly, the need for acquiring and processing information, operational command and control, and engagement support will boost the information technology sector.
The development of aircraft carriers will drive investment and technology both. And since an aircraft carrier needs huge amounts of high-tech input, it will drive economic growth, too.
The US' Star Wars program (Strategic Defense Initiative) in the 1980s is a good example of what strategic development can do. The program helped developed five high-tech groups and about 80 technologies, about 90 percent of which can be for civil use. The information technology industry developed and expanded on the basis of this program between 1995 and 1997, and contributed about 30 percent of the US' GDP growth. In 1997, it created about 7.4 million jobs and brought huge commercial benefits.
The Star Wars program has driven the development of aerospace, energy, computer and other technology-intensive industries in the US. And it laid the material and technological foundation of one of the US' golden periods of economic growth.
A similar effect could be felt in China if it starts developing aircraft carriers.
The author is an associate professor at the Economic Security and National Defense Economy Institute, School of Economics, Renmin University of China.
(China Daily 08/19/2011 page9)
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