Troops out but military remains

Obama's withdrawal plan a political maneuver to win votes as US' strategy is not to exit Afghanistan completely

Last month, US President Barack Obama announced a plan to withdraw some 10,000 US troops from Afghanistan by the end of 2011 and another 23,000 by next summer with the aim of giving Afghans control of their own security by 2014. The plan is widely considered to be an indication that the United States is beginning an "exit strategy" in Afghanistan.

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In fact, there are disagreements between the White House and the Pentagon over withdrawing troops from Afghanistan. The former is paying more attention to domestic politics, while the latter hopes to slow or delay the troop withdrawal so as to further stabilize the Afghan situation. But Obama's decision shows that domestic politics have finally prevailed over military needs.

The decade-long war in Afghanistan has cost the lives of at least 1,649 members of the US military and cost $450 billion. Despite the killing of Osama bin Laden, the US-led multinational forces have not cleared out al-Qaida and the Taliban and there is still a long way to go for Afghan reconstruction.

Public weariness with the war is getting stronger in the US against the backdrop of a stagnant economy and high unemployment. For the debt-ridden US government, the outlay in Afghanistan seems bottomless. Many US citizens believe that the Karzai government is "corrupt and inefficient" and are unwilling to "foot the bill". They hope the government will switch more resources to solving the US' domestic problems. Amid the economic downturn, a new isolationism is gaining ground in the US.

Giving priority to domestic problems has become a consensus in the US, which Obama and the Democrats are well aware of. Though there is some time before the presidential election, the war in Afghanistan, if not well handled, will cause trouble to Obama because it is related to his credibility.

Obama won the last election with an anti-war stance. After entering the White House, he authorized the withdrawal of some troops from Iraq but increased the number of troops in Afghanistan, which angered many people, including many Democrats. The results of the 2010 mid-term elections sounded an alarm for Obama and the Democrats. From this perspective, the withdrawal plan is important as Obama promised to begin withdrawing troops from Afghanistan this July and needs to be seen to be fulfilling this promise.

However, a successful outcome to the Afghan situation for the US depends on the following factors.

First, in the next three years, the US-led multinational forces must control the security situation and smoothly transfer security to the Afghans. But even though the Afghan security forces now number about 300,000, their effectiveness is not promising.

Second, with the approach of the withdrawal timetable, including the Taliban in the Afghan peace process was an inevitable choice for the US, but drawing a lesson from Iraq, the US is trying to divide the Taliban. President Hamid Karzai is actively promoting peace talks with the Taliban to achieve a political reconciliation, but before any progress has been made between the two sides, the US troop withdrawal will strengthen the Taliban's position, resulting in difficulties in the reconciliation process.

Third, the killing of Osama bin Laden by US forces going deep into Pakistan aggravated the already strained US-Pakistan relations. However, the development of the Afghan situation also requires the cooperation and support of Pakistan.

The troop withdrawal plan is a political compromise that tries to appease both the domestic anti-war sentiment and the concerns of the military. Prior to the general election next year, the withdrawal is limited to the troop surge after Obama took office. Maybe after the election, the US will focus more on the war in Afghanistan.

Washington will then adjust its "exit strategy", and will probably slow the pace of withdrawal. The US will certainly not leave Afghanistan completely as the country is a strategic bridgehead where it can further pin down surrounding countries and work on the situation in Central Asia.

The US will seek to establish military bases in Afghanistan so as to maintain a permanent military presence, as from Afghanistan the US forces can raid surrounding military targets. The covert operation to kill bin Laden was telling in this regard.

Currently the US and Afghanistan are negotiating a strategic partnership convention, which will facilitate the establishment of permanent military bases in Afghanistan. Clearly in the foreseeable future, the Afghan government will not be able to rid itself of its dependence on the US.

The author is a research scholar with the Institute of American Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

(China Daily 07/05/2011 page8)