Transcript·文字实录

冯欣：中国国家副主席习近平于2月13日起程出访三个国家，首站美国。根据中国外交部和美国白宫的消息，他将要访问华盛顿、加利福尼亚州等地。他的行程上还有一站：艾奥瓦州，一个不是非常广为人知的州。

Feng Xin: The Chinese Vice-President Xi Jinping set out to visit the United States on Feb 13 on a three-country tour. According to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the White House, he is going to visit Washington DC, California, and also on his itinerary: Iowa, which probably struggles a little harder for recognition.

多家媒体报道，习近平要到艾奥瓦州一个叫马斯卡廷的小城，看望一些27年前结交的老朋友。当时，习近平是河北省的一个县委书记，带领当地一个畜产业人士代表团访问艾奥瓦州。但为什么这次他又选择了艾奥瓦州？这个州有什么特别之处？再往深一步讲：中美两国人民如何看待对方？我今天邀请了三位嘉宾。

And various media reports said he is going to visit some old friends he met 27 years ago in a small town called Muscatine in Iowa. At that time, he was a Hebei provincial party official,leading a delegation of the local feed association to visit Iowa. But why did he pick Iowa this time again? What's special about the state? And to go even further, how do American and Chinese people see each other? I've got three guests today.

冯欣：我很荣幸邀请三位。金灿荣教授，中国人民大学国际关系学院副院长；熊蕾女士，作家，也是前新华社中国特稿社副社长；以及克里斯•克拉克，我的同事、中国日报网主持人，一个在艾奥瓦州生活、学习了四年的人。欢迎你们大家。

Feng Xin: It's my great pleasure inviting all of you. Professor Jin Canrong, associate dean of Renmin University's School of International Relations, and Ms Xiong Lei, author and also the former executive editor of China Features from Xinhua News Agency. And also Chris Clark, my colleague from China Daily Website, anchor，and also someone who has spent four years living and studying in Iowa. Welcome you all.

克里斯，先从你开始。你在艾奥瓦州生活了好几年，艾奥瓦州是一个什么样的州？有什么特别的？

Chris, let me start with you. You've spent a good number of years in Iowa. What kind of state is Iowa? What's particular about it?

克里斯：开车开进艾奥瓦州本身就很有趣。大多数时候，当你沿着I-80州际公路开的时候，你可以看见路两旁都是玉米地。所以艾奥瓦州主要是一个农业大州。在艾奥瓦州生活很愉快，但是很多人可能并没有意识到这一点。

Chris: Driving into Iowa is an interesting sight. I think most of the time, driving down I-80 (Interstate 80), you see corn fields on both sides. So, a lot of Iowa is about agriculture and agricultural-related business. It's a great state to be a part of that a lot of people may not pay much attention to.

冯欣：对我们这些美国以外的人来说，艾奥瓦州肯定没有加利福尼亚州或德克萨斯州这么有名。那么美国人自己呢？

Feng Xin: It seems to people who are outside the US, Iowa is certainly not as recognized as states like California or Texas. What about for people in the US?

克里斯：我想艾奥瓦州以外的人，当他们听到这个州，他们会好玩地看着你说：“艾奥瓦州有什么？”大家觉得艾奥瓦州就是玉米地。但是我认为，艾奥瓦州真正进入公众视线，是在选举季节举行选民小组会议的时候，尤其是赶上每四年一次总统大选的时候。

Chris: I think most people outside of Iowa, when they hear the state or hear something about Iowa, a lot of people will look at you funny and say, "What's in Iowa? What's there?" Everyone thinks it's just corn fields, and that's it. At the same time, I think, when Iowa really comes into the national spotlight is in the political season for the Iowa caucus sat the presidential election every four years.

冯欣：我听说，艾奥瓦州的选民小组会议在每届总统大选中都扮演重要的角色，你能不能解释一下，这个选民小组会议是怎么一回事？

Feng Xin: I heard Iowa plays a quite significant role in every US presidential election because of its caucuses. Can you explain a little bit what caucus is and how it works?

克里斯：艾奥瓦州的大选选民小组会议每四年举行一次。它是在整个国家大选选举季节中规模最大、最早的选民小组会议。选民小组会议得出的结果一般能给公众一个预期，就是谁目前在竞选中领先，谁根本就没有机会获胜。它不一定是预测总统候选人或总统最准确的晴雨表，但是它收到的媒体关注度，以及它对全国选民选举意向的影响是不可低估的。

Chris: The Iowa caucus in the presidential election comes around every four years. It is the first and largest caucus of the political presidential election season. So essentially, the results of the Iowa caucus give the public a view of who's in the lead in terms of getting a nomination for presidency early and also who may not have a chance.It's not always the most accurate in terms of whoever wins the Iowa caucus taking the presidency or taking the nomination, but it receives so much media attention that has an influence on voters around the country who are looking at Iowa as a judge as to who they are voting for.

冯欣：好，我们现在对艾奥瓦州有了一点了解，但我们还没探讨为什么习近平副主席这次要去艾奥瓦州。

Feng Xin: I see. Now we know a little bit about Iowa, but we haven't really touched upon the question why the Vice-President Xi Jinping is going to visit Iowa this time.

金灿荣：我觉得重返艾奥瓦州访问的目的，一是重温当年的美好回忆，二就是公关，展示中国领导人人性化的一面，就像美国副总统拜登访华时玩的策略——拜登在北京的鼓楼待了几小时。

Jin Canrong: I think the purpose to have that trip back to Iowa– one is to revise his good memory of his first trip. Another thing I think is something relating with PR, to show the humane (side) of Chinese leaders, something just like Vice-President Biden played here. Biden spent several hours at Beijing's Gulou, downtown Gulou.

冯欣：炸酱面馆。

Feng Xin: A noodle restaurant.

金灿荣：对，面馆。

Jin Canrong: Yes, a noodle restaurant.

熊蕾：我不确定习副主席访问艾奥瓦州是否与这个有关，但是我认为这是艾奥瓦州应得的注意力。我记得在70年代末，由于美籍华人聂华苓的牵线搭桥——当时她是艾奥瓦大学的一名老师，艾奥瓦州创立了第一个中国作家参与的项目，也就是“国际写作工坊”。几十位中国作家在艾奥瓦州进修了半年时间，那是两国之间最早的民间交流项目。

Xiong Lei: I don't know if Vice-President Xi's visit to Iowa will be related to that, but I think Iowa deserves the attention. Because I remember that in the late 1970s, because of a Chinese-American Nie Hualing, who was a teacher at the University of Iowa, Iowa started the first program involving Chinese writers. That is the International Writing Workshop in the university. Dozens of Chinese writers spent a half year in Iowa because of that program. That was one of the first people-oriented, people-to-people exchange program.

冯欣：我们刚刚谈到领导人向普通人展现自己平民化的一面。他们为什么需要在一个国家层面的访问中这样做呢？

Feng Xin: We talked about showing leaders' personal sides or personal connections to people. Why is there a need for leaders to do that during a state-level visit?

金灿荣：实际上，习副主席在美国有三站：华盛顿，这是政治、政策为主的一站；然后是艾奥瓦州，美国的心脏地带，我注意到克里斯用这个词，心脏地带，这是真正的美国；然后第三站是洛杉矶，我想这一站主要是经济主导的。作为普通人，大家肯定会将更多注意力放到第二站。两个国家，无论这些高级领导人怎样执政，他们始终得与草根保持联系。

Jin Canrong: Actually, Vice-President Xi will have three stops in the States. Washington DC is a more political policy-oriented stop. And then Iowa, that's the heartland – I noticed Chris used the term, heartland – that's where the real America is located. Then， his third stop is Los Angeles. I think the third stop will be more economically oriented, trade-oriented. As average people, definitely, people will pay more attention to the second trip. In both countries, no matter how the elites play their prominent role, they have to keep contact, keep in touch with the grassroots.

冯欣：与公众。

Feng Xin: With the public.

金灿荣：与公众，否则你的政策设计就会偏离实际或偏离现实。

Jin Canrong: With the public, or your policy design will be out of touch with the fact, out of touch with the reality.

冯欣：也就是说“民意”是这里的关键词？

Feng Xin: So is "public opinion" a keyword here?

金灿荣：从长远来看，绝对是。我认为民意最基本的作用是划定一个决策的底线。如果说公众对一件事有比较统一和坚定的意见，那么决策者在制定政策时就不能跨越那个底线。

Jin Canrong: From a long-term viewpoint, it's definitely very important. I think the basic role is that the public opinion will set the bottom line of your policy. If there exists a solid consensus among the public, then the policy-makers cannot go beyond the bottom line.

冯欣：说到民意，我这里有两套很有意思的民调数据，由两个机构收集所得。我跟几位分享一下。

Feng Xin: Talking about public opinion, I've got a few interesting sets of statistics collected by two polling institutions. Let me share them with you.

去年底，中国日报和零点研究公司合作，在中国的七个主要城市对1464人进行了调查。这些城市大都驻有美国使馆或领事馆。60%-70%的人说他们有信心，中国会在不久的将来超过美国，成为世界的最大的经济体。

At the end of last year, China Daily and Horizon Research Group conducted a survey with 1,464 respondents in seven major Chinese cities, most of which host US embassies or consulates. Between 60 and 70 percent of Chinese people said they are confident that China will surpass the US as the world's largest economy in the near future.

90%以上的人认为中美关系重要；三分之二的人认为，美国应为中美两国存在的问题负主要责任，但是较去年新增了10%的人认为两国都有责任。

More than 90 percent of Chinese citizens said China-US relations are important. More than two thirds of Chinese people said the US bears more responsibilities in problems existing between China and the US. But compared to last year, 10 percent more people said both countries are responsible for problems.

50%的人说，他们对美国有好印象，比2009年减少了15%。受访者在描述美国国家形象时最常用的五个词汇是：霸权主义、经济发达、中美关系、自由民主、以及战争军事。超过70%的人认为美国文化对中国有积极的影响。科技产品、电影、大学和体育最能代表美国的文化。

About 50 percent of Chinese people said they have a good impression of the US, which is 15 percent less than in 2009. Respondents said the top five key phrases that come to mind when describing the United States' national image are: hegemony, developed economy, China-US relations, freedom and democracy, and war and military. More than 70 percent of Chinese people said American culture has a positive influence on China. High-tech products, movies, universities and sports can most represent American culture.

冯欣：这些数字有没有让你觉得比较惊讶的？

Feng Xin: Are there any interesting facts or figures that surprise you?

克里斯：让我一眼就注意到的，是说50%的中国民众对美国有良好的印象，较2009年减少了15%。我认为这一数据仅凭我们现有的信息来看，很难去评判。

人们可以有各种不同的印象，比如对于政治、经济、娱乐或者人与人之间的交流、文化等等。所以，说有50%的中国人对美国有一个良好的印象——我觉得这反而提出了更多的问题。因此，我会很想了解这些人是如何形成这种看法的。

Chris: The one that catches my eye is that 50 percent of the Chinese citizens have a good impression of the US, which is 15 percent less than in 2009.I think that's a really hard statistic to judge based on the information that we are given. There are so many different impressions you can have of politics, or business, or entertainment, or just person-to-person communication, your culture. So, to say that 50 percent of Chinese people have a good impression of the US is very – it raises a lot more questions，so I would be interested to know how these people are forming their opinions.

金灿荣：一百多年前，马克•吐温说过世界上有三种东西不能相信：第一是谎言，第二是邪恶的谎言，第三就是数据。

Jin Canrong: A hundred years ago, Mark Twain told us there are three things you cannot believe, one is lying, the second is evil lying, the third is statistics.

冯欣：非常睿智

Feng Xin: Ok, that's very clever.

金灿荣：你可以关注这些民意调查，但是不能让它们左右了你的判断，其实应该更多地去关注一些常识性的问题。

Jin Canrong: You can pay some attention to these polls but don't just rely on these polls to make your judgment. Just pay more attention to commonsense issue.

冯欣：比如？

Feng Xin: For example?

金灿荣：比如，美国目前仍是世界上最强大的国家，所以中国要和美国保持一个稳定的关系。

Jin Canrong: For example, the US is still the most powerful country in the world, so China has to make that relationship with the States stable.

熊蕾：那个中国很快就会超越美国成为世界第一大国的问题，我认为这种说法不说毫无根据吧，也很具有欺骗性。因为中国的经济基础仍不够强大，而且人均GDP也非常低，收入差异也很大。所以我们还需要解决很多国内问题才能真正变得经济强大。

Xiong Lei: That question that China is going to surpass the United States as the NO 1 world economy anytime soon, I think that kind of statement is, if not nonsense, is quite deceiving. Because China's economic foundation is still not that strong, and the per capita GDP is very low. Disparity of income is quite big. So we have many domestic problems before we can be really economically strong.

冯欣：那么是什么让人们这么自信，认为中国即将超越美国呢？

Feng Xin: What do you think would make people so confident about surpassing the US, for example?

金灿荣：我认为，很大程度上是因为西方媒体的影响。西方媒体对于中国超越美国日期的预测比中国媒体要多得多，中国媒体没有这么有信心。你可能注意到了，去年12月《经济学人》杂志做了一个大胆的预测，说中国将会超越美国；甚至是根据币值来看，将会发生在2018年，六年以后。在那之前，国际货币基金组织也预测中国将在2016年超越美国，但是他们是根据购买力平价来看的。所以很多这类的预测是由西方媒体引入中国的，而并非由中国媒体报道的。

Jin Canrong: I think it's largely because the influence of the Western media. There are more Western media predict(ing)the date China (will) surpass the United States than Chinese media. The Chinese media is not that confident to say that. But, as you may have noticed, December last year, The Economist, they have a bold prediction that China will surpass the US, even according to currency value, in the year of 2018, six years away. And before that, IMF predicted China will surpass the US in 2016.But that's according to PPP, purchasing power parity. So, a lot of these kinds of predictions are imported from Western media into China, not invented by the Chinese media.

冯欣：在美国，从你认识的人来看，他们是怎么样看待中国以及中国的崛起的？

Feng Xin: Back at home, from people that you know, how do people see China, how do people see China's rise?

克里斯：我认为，你说得对。中国超越美国这种概念，打开电视就能看到。电视新闻的标题中会用到“取代”这个词，说“中国即将取代美国成为世界第一”等等。我觉得，在很多人看来，这种说法让他们害怕，觉得受到威胁。同时，这些标题所说的也许就是他们听说或了解的关于中国的一切。而他们会将这一说法通过微博或者社交网络再次传播出去。就想你说的那样，他们有这种能力去传播他们的看法，而这种看法也许并不是经过仔细地探究的。

Chris: What I think is that, you are right, the idea of China surpassing the US is what you see when you turn on TV. You see a headline on TV that says and uses the words "take over", "China will take over US", "China will become NO 1". And I think, in a lot of people's viewpoints, that scares them, intimidates them. At the same time, they take just that headline, which is maybe all they've heard or all they know, and then they go on Twitter or social networking. Just like you said, they have the ability to broadcast their opinion which is probably – maybe not so thoroughly researched.

熊蕾：对于我来说，我对于中国的年轻一代更感兴趣。我的想法是，中国的年轻一代，尤其是那些80后、90后，他们对于中美两国关系的处理相对于老一辈的人来说，可能更加自信。因为他们成长在一个相对良好的经济环境下，鉴于这种自信，他们会有更独立的思考。

Xiong Lei: To me, I'm more interested in the younger generations. And my impression is that perhaps, especially for the Chinese younger generations who were born after the 1980s and 1990s, could be more confident in handling the relationships between the two countries than the older generations, because they grew up in a stronger economy. With this confidence, they could be more independent of thinking.

冯欣：我们刚才谈到零点关于“中国人眼中的美国人”的调查结果，现在来看看盖洛普的调查结果：美国人眼中的中国人。

Feng Xin: We just talked about how Chinese people see American people by Horizon data. Let's talk about the Gallup data. How do American people see Chinese?

同样是在2011年年底，中国日报和美国盖洛普公司进行了一项调查，样本包括在全美随机抽样的2007名普通民众。42%的受访者说，他们预期中国将会超越美国成为世界的领导力量。美国人对于中国日益增长的经济的看法是褒贬各占一半。45%的受访者认为这是件好事，而48%的受访者认为这是件坏事。美国人对于中国的看法也是褒贬参半。

Also around late 2011, China Daily and Gallup conducted a survey with a nationally representative sample of 2007 US residents.Forty-two percent of all respondents said they expect China to replace the United States as the world's leading power. Americans are split on the implications of China's burgeoning economy; 45 percent said China's growing economy is a good thing, and 48 percent said it was a bad thing. Americans are nearly split on their overall view of China.

42%的受访者称，自己对中国持赞许态度，44%的受访者表示不喜欢中国，还有12%没有意见。尽管对中国的好感度褒贬不一，有71%的受访者认为美国与中国之间的良好关系是重要的。在另一个问题中，81%的受访者认为中美之间的紧密联系是一件好事。

Forty-two percent said they have a favorable opinion of China, 44 percent had an unfavorable view, and 12 percent said they don't have an opinion. Despite mixed results on favorability, 71 percent of respondents said strong relations between the United States and China are important. In a separate question, 81 percent of respondents said having a close relationship with China is a "good thing".

冯欣：比较零点和盖洛普收集的这两组数据，两国民众对对方的印象有没有不对称的地方？

Feng Xin: Comparing these two sets of data collected by Horizon and Gallup, is there any dissymmetry between how people see each other?

熊蕾：这种不对称主要体现在——

Xiong Lei: The dissymmetry you see that more Chinese –

冯欣：中国人喜欢美国人比美国人喜欢中国人多？

Feng Xin: Chinese like Americans more than the other way around?

熊蕾：是的，这是我看到数据之后的印象。

Xiong Lei: Yes, that's my impression.

冯欣：你也有同样的印象。

Feng Xin: You have the same impression.

熊蕾：但是我认为，美国媒体很大程度上造成了这种误解。在过去的几年中，我觉得美国媒体已经有了一些进步，但是，他们仍然持有一种形成定势的政治概念，这是非常难以改变的，就是“共产党领导的国家就一定是极权主义的”，这种思维定势，以及西藏和新疆问题。他们的政治立场就已经固定在那里了。

Xiong Lei: But I think, to me that the US media have played an important role in the misunderstanding. In the past a few years, I think the American media have made some improvements. But still, they have an instilled political conception, which is vary hard to change."The totalitarian, the Communist Party-led country must be totalitarian."And issues like Tibet and Xinjiang, the political position is there.

冯欣：克里斯，你已经来中国很长时间了，你有没有接触到过一些中国人对美国人产生的误解？

Feng Xin: And Chris, so you've lived in China for quite a while, what about some of the conceptions, misconceptions Chinese people have about your people?

克里斯：我来中国一年半了，总是会遇到一些老套的想法或者类似于“你们难道不这样做吗”。这样的问题有些很可笑，有一些确实是如此。

Chris: I've lived in China for 18 months, about a year and a half. There always seems to come some sort of stereotype, or don't-you-guys-do-this sort of question. Some of them are laughable, others are "Yes, we do."

冯欣：你能给我们举一些例子吗？

Feng Xin: Can you give us some examples?

克里斯：比如，曾经有人问我是不是吃饭时要喝牛奶。我去吃饭，然后他们就问：“你需不需要一杯牛奶？” 我就说：“不用，谢谢。” 他们就会问：“你们不是吃饭都要喝牛奶的吗？”然后我就会说：“是啊，但是只是偶尔。” 就是类似这样的小事。

Chris: For example, I have had people asking me about drinking milk with meals. I will sit down a dinner or lunch, and (they will) say, "Do you want a glass of milk?"And I will say, "No, thank you." And they will say, "Don't you guys drink milk with your meals?"And I will say, "Yes, but not every time."Small things like that.

冯欣：似乎美国民众对于中国人的看法是非常两极化的，这些数字有没有映证了你的经历呢？

Feng Xin: It seems that American people's perceptions of Chinese are pretty polarized. Do these numbers reflect your experiences?

克里斯：可以这么说，但是我认为许多我听到的看法是来自于那些知之甚少、不能真正给出看法的人。我觉得我看到的最多的还是来自于美国人民的好奇心。当人们听说我现在在中国，或者他们谈论到中国相关的问题时，体现出的基本上是好奇，他们想了解更多。

Chris: I would say so, although again I would think that a lot of the opinions that I hear are coming from people who don't know enough to form a true opinion. I think really what I see mostly is curiosity coming from American people and my peers. When they hear that I'm living in China or they talk about issues that are related to China, a lot of it is curiosity; they want to know more.

冯欣：金教授，我记得在去年与您的对话中，您对中美关系做了一个非常有趣的比喻，让我印象非常深刻。您说中国和美国就像一对感情不好的夫妇，但是谁也承受不起离婚。这是什么意思呢？

Feng Xin: Professor Jin, I remember from talking to you last year, you used a very interesting term to describe China-US relations, which made a very deep impression on me. You said China and "the United States are like a couple with bad relations but who can't afford to divorce". And what did you mean by that? Can you (explain)?

金灿荣：你知道，我们一开始建立联系并不是因为我们彼此相爱，而是因为我们都不喜欢前苏联。但是后来我们建立了真正的关系，而且现在两国之间有一种非常强的互存关系。我们也非常清楚，想要改变任何一方都是不可能的。

Jin Canrong: You know, we get to know each other not because we love each other, but because we hate the third party, the Soviet Union. But then we established some real relationships. And now we have very strong so-called interdependence. And we're also aware it's just impossible to change, to reshape the other side.

冯欣：所以现在情况还是如此。

Feng Xin: So it's still the case today.

金灿荣：是的，但是如果你要去伤害对方的话，你可以找到很多机会。

Jin Canrong: Yes. But if you want to hurt the other side, you can find a lot of opportunities.

冯欣：就像现实生活中的夫妻一样。

Feng Xin: Just like real-life couples.

金灿荣：是的。

Jin Canrong: Yes.

熊蕾：如果我们将两国之间的关系比作一对夫妻，那么，、为了维持婚姻，你必须恒久地去培育两人之间的感情。

Xiong Lei: And also if we compare the relationship of two countries like a couple, to keep a marriage alive, you have to cultivate permanently the relationships between the two spouses.

冯欣：两国都将进行领导人权力的交接，您对中美两国关系有何预测呢？

Feng Xin: Both countries are going to have their power transitions. What will be your projections for China-US relations?

金灿荣：根据过去四十年的经验，每一次美国总统大选，中国都会被影响，成为党派和政治争斗的受害者。现在，我们也能看到，有些人在打冲击中国的牌。从某种程度上来说，中美关系会受到影响，但是从中国这个角度看，我不认为我们的权力交接会对中美关系产生不利的影响。从中国这一方看，我们看到的更多的是延续而不是改变。

Jin Canrong: According to the experiences in the past four decades, each time the US is experiencing a presidential election, China will be back-lashed, become a victim of parties and politics. Now we are watching some people play the card of back-lashing China.To some extent, the US-China relations will get hurt. But on our side, on the Chinese side, I don't think the power transition has a negative impact on US-China relations. We'll see more continuity than change on the Chinese side.

Archive · 往期

Jan 19: Why is "chunyun" rush such a hassle? 春运难，难在哪？

What makes the 40-day Chinese New Year travel, or "chunyun" such a problem for millions of people?
到底是什么让每年为期40天的春运成为一个问题？

Digest China: Year 2011 in quotes
《解析中国》：2011语录

We put together 10 most-quotable interview segments to "digest" the year 2011.
《解析中国》年终特辑——十段最精彩的访谈语录。

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When you see a person badly injured in the middle of the road, what do you do? That decision is becoming more difficult in China after some people who offered help were falsely accused of injuring the person in need.

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How do psychiatrists maintain their own mental health? And what do they think of the drafted Mental Health Law? For this week's Digest China, host Feng Xin invites two psychiatrists to the studio.

On the spectrum: China's mental health conditions

The National People's Congress just finished collecting opinions on passing China's first Mental Health Law. How is China's mental health in general? And how the legislation might impact you?

Should China "rescue" Europe?

Europe is experiencing a financial crisis. Many people have turned their eyes to China, but what does this crisis have to do with China? What role is China playing? For this week's Digest China, we come to Brussels to meet two guests.

Digest China: Powerful kids - Part 2

Last week we visited a Chinese elementary school in Beijing and talked to a few 9- to 10-year-old children about taking power as student leaders at school. For this week, we visit an international school and see what children do differently.

Powerful kids - Part 1

Having a system of a class monitor and some little ministers in charge of different aspects of school life is common in China. The host Feng Xin and her producer come to one school in Beijing and talk to some powerful kids.