Will China dominate the world?

( China Daily ) Updated: 2014-01-19 23:20:32

Rana Mitter, director-designate of Oxford University's China Centre.Nick J.B. Moore / for China Daily

"Of course China has lots of problems and it has been up against many of these since reform and opening-up began in the late 1970s. They have, however, been extraordinarily good at overcoming them."

The former deputy editor of The Independent newspaper and editor of Marxism Today, rejects some of the new China realism as being overly pessimistic.

"I think a lot of China writers just have this huge difficulty. If you look at this period since China's rise started, you got this bearish sentiment from Western experts that it was all going to come to an end," he says.

"I think the fundamental reason for this skepticism is that they cannot come to terms with a country that is so alien in political and other terms to the West has pioneered a different and successful way for itself."

Edward Tse, chairman emeritus, Greater China, of international management consultants Booz & Co, who is shortly to launch his own new consultancy, Gao Feng Advisory, believes Fenby underestimates the transformation now taking place in the Chinese economy.

He agrees the private sector has been held back by the dominance of the State-owned industries but that the story of the next few decades will be the unleashing of China's entrepreneurs on the global stage.

"That the Chinese economy is dominated by State-owned enterprises and the government plays a heavy role in industry is true but I think the future will be different. I think that will belong to Chinese entrepreneurs. I think that is something that people in the West underestimate and under-appreciate."

Tse, also author of The China Challenge: Harnessing the Power of the World's Fastest-Growing Economy, describes the recognition of market forces at the Third Plenum of the Central Committee of the Communist Party in November as "monumental".

He believes the next decade will see major outward investment such as Shuanghui International Holding Ltd's recent $4.7 billion acquisition of Smithfield Foods Inc in the US.

"We are going to see more and more Chinese companies looking to build their own capability and address their problems of lack of innovation or skills by making acquisitions," he says.