2009 top ten news
Top 10 economic forecasts
(chinadaily.com.cn)
Updated: 2010-01-14 06:10
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Editor's Note: Since the beginning of 2008, China's GDP growth has shown a perfect "V" shape, indicating a solid recovery from the global economic slump. There is no doubt that China has achieved the goal of 8 percent GDP growth in 2009, but how will the economy grow this year? Our editors have made the top 10 forecasts for how China will grow its economy in 2010.
2. Fine-tuning monetary policy
3. Fiscal investment in welfare
6. Increasing residential income
7. Slowing housing price hikes
9. Rebalancing regional development
10. Benefits for emerging industries
1.Restructuring the economy
Thanks to the central government's massive stimulus package and prompt loans, there is no doubt that China has achieved its goal of 8 percent GDP growth in 2009. Economists suggest that adjusting the economic structure should top the agenda in 2010 to address regional imbalances and production overcapacity.
Related readings:
Nation's inflation due to economic structure
Economic structure needs adjustment
Premier stresses financial work in economic structure
2.Fine-tuning monetary policy
The Central Economic Work Conference in December decided to continue its "moderately loose" monetary policy this year, but the central bank will still have room for "fine-tuning" the policy. Now the market is watching how the government will manage inflation while maintaining this monetary policy.
Related readings:
Bank reserve ratio raised to curb lending
China reaffirms moderately loose monetary policy
Central bank governor reaffirms moderately loose monetary policy
3.Fiscal investment in welfare
Experts believe central and local governments will fund the people's social welfare system and economic restructuring, as well as medical care reform this year. In addition, small and medium-sized companies and under-developed regions will receive more fiscal support.
Agencies study future of charity, social welfare system
High-priced healthcare
Chinese vice premier stresses orderly reform of healthcare
4.Exports to recover
China's foreign trade is expected to pick up about 10 percent year-on-year in 2010, due to the recovery of external markets and the support of domestic policies. However, some analysts warned exporters to be cautious in the face of increasing trade protectionism against China.
China names another 20 innovation bases to boost foreign trade
China's '09 foreign trade falls 13.9% to $2.21t
Experts: ASEAN free-trade accord is a win-win deal
5. Boosting domestic demand
China adopted a series of policies to boost domestic demand in 2009, and analysts said the government's measures to boost consumption will contribute more to economic growth in 2010. Wang Bin, an official from the Ministry of Commerce, predicted that retail sales will increase 16 percent to 14.6 trillion yuan in 2010.
Related readings:
Expert: China needs to stimulate domestic demand
China's domestic demand will continue to grow: SIC
Domestic demand can sustain Asian growth
6. Increasing residential income
Increasing the incomes of residents must be a part of economic restructuring to drive domestic consumption to grow the economy this year. Some experts propose that the government increase incomes of people, especially middle-class and lower-class residents, and also raise the individual income tax threshold.
Farmers' per capita income hits $735
China to raise earnings of middle-and-low income groups
Income-fueled growth
7. Slowing housing price hikes
In 2009, the nation's booming housing sector became a pillar of the country's unexpectedly quick economic recovery from the global recession. Will property prices keep rising in the new year? Some experts said the real estate prices might rise in second-tier and third-tier cities, which face short supplies. However, the price increase in first-tier cities is expected to slow down this year.
Related readings:
China tightens control on residential housing price
Watch the housing price
Beijing housing price tops 20,000 yuan per sq m inside 4th Ring
8. Managing inflation
Consumer prices in November rose 0.6 percent from 2008 levels after falling for most of 2009, revealing a sign of potential inflation this year. The government is considering ways to manage the threat of inflation, with the greater liquidity triggering anticipations for a slow rise in consumer prices this year.
Related readings:
China starts slowly in 2010 race against inflation
China PMI hits new high, raising inflation concerns
Inflation not a serious threat, official says
9. Rebalancing regional development
The central government approved nine regional development plans last year, more than the total of the previous four years, which showed its resolve to rebalance regional economies. China’s competitive advantage demands cooperation among coastal areas and central, western and northeastern regions.
Related readings:
Reaching sustainable regional development in China
China's growth drives regional development: Cambodian PM
Regional development plans to be unveiled
Official stresses low-carbon economy for regional development
10. Benefits for emerging industries
Some emerging industries in sectors such as new energy, building materials non-ferrous metal and chemicals are expected to benefit the most from China’s economic recovery.
Related readings:
China enjoys fastest growth in new energy
China's BAIC launches new energy auto subsidiary
Will coal be new energy king?
New energy source found in tundras
