Rating agencies predict rouble 'to touch new lows'

Boards showing currency exchange rates are seen in Moscow, January 7, 2015. Many emerging market currencies weakened on Wednesday, weighed down by oil prices hitting fresh lows, with Russian assets feeling most of the pain. South Africa's rand, Turkey's lira, and the Russian rouble all traded lower against the dollar, after oil prices fell below $50 barrel for the first time since 2009. [Photo/Agencies]

Ratings agencies say economic outlook worsens amid Ukraine conflict, oil fall

The world's top rouble forecaster is unimpressed by the currency's 30 percent rebound from a record low.

The analyst－Danske Bank A/S's Vladimir Miklashevsky－said that the rouble may be testing new lows again this quarter as the plunge in oil, Russia's top export, threatens to cost the country its investment-grade credit ratings and turns Russians away from their currency.

The rouble traded at 61.55 per dollar on Friday, after reaching 80.1 on Dec 16, the weakest on record.

"We can easily see records as the oil price is much lower," said Miklashevsky from Brondby, Denmark.

Concern over a rating cut and the loss of confidence among Russians "are the ingredients for a further bout of weakness," he said.

Depreciation would exacerbate the challenges facing President Vladimir Putin as the economy teeters on the edge of a recession and investors dump the nation's bonds.

Fitch Ratings downgraded Russian debt on Friday to the lowest investment grade amid plummeting crude prices and sanctions over Ukraine, maintaining a negative outlook.

Standard & Poor's is also weighing a junk rating for the world's biggest energy exporter.

Russia's economic outlook has "deteriorated significantly since mid-2014" after the sharp falls in the oil price and the rouble, coupled with a steep rise in local interest rates, Fitch said in its statement.

The nation's rouble notes lost 55 percent in dollar terms since the end of June, the biggest decline in the Bloomberg Emerging Market Local Sovereign Index.

Danske, which topped Bloomberg's rankings of foreign-exchange analysts for the four quarters through December, predicts the rouble will average 75 to 77 a dollar in the first quarter.

Options information compiled by Bloomberg shows a 35 percent probability of the currency setting a new all-time low by March 31.

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