China growth data to show stimulus kicking in but more support may be needed

(Agencies) Updated: 2014-07-16 07:33

Activity in June picks up

Along with second-quarter gross domestic product, Beijing will also report the last of its activity indicators for June, which could give investors more clues on how much economic momentum will be carried into the second half of the year.

Manufacturing output is forecast to have grown 9 percent in June, up a shade from May's 8.8 percent. Retail sales, a key gauge of consumption and a counterweight to sluggish exports, may have grown 12.4 percent in June, easing slightly from 12.5 percent in May.

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Growth in fixed-asset investment, a key growth driver, is seen hovering at 17.2 percent in the first six months of 2014 - unchanged from the pace seen in the first five months.

But investors will be bracing for details on real estate investment. New construction fell by nearly a fifth in the first five months of the year, while average home prices in May fell for the first time in two years.

Data on Tuesday showed Chinese banks lent a much stronger-than-expected 1.08 trillion yuan ($173.9 billion) worth of new yuan loans in June while broad M2 money supply jumped 14.7 percent from a year earlier, as the central bank loosens monetary conditions to support the economy.

Other data last week showed inflation cooled more than expected in June, pointing to lingering sluggishness in the economy, while exports did not improve as much as expected, putting greater pressure on Beijing to spur domestic demand.

Some analysts expect modest upside surprises in the investment and industrial production growth for June, with some expecting second-quarter GDP growth to be around 7.5 percent.

Top leaders have ruled out the possibility of any massive stimulus as China struggles to deal with piles of local government debt, the hangover from a 4 trillion yuan ($644 billion) spending package implemented in 2008-09 to help cushion the country from the global financial crisis.