Why power may shift in Japan

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(Agencies)
Updated: 2009-08-28 07:22

Japan's protracted economic downturns battered rural areas, traditional strongholds of the LDP. So, too, did Mr. Koizumi's structural reforms, which included the controversial privatization of the post office. But even under Koizumi, the LDP struggled to move beyond familiar pork-barrel politics.

Critics say leaders have been out of touch at a time when people are losing jobs or accepting deep pay cuts in the export-dependent economy.

Akikazu Hashimoto, a political science professor at J.F. Oberlin University in Tokyo, says a major political shift started 20 years ago. "As the end of the cold war and the collapse of the Soviet Union made more Japanese question the raison d'être of the LDP, the country started to see the emergence of unaffiliated voters not driven by an ideology," he says.

The LDP managed to survive as the opposition gained ground, by allying itself with the Soka Gakkai, Japan's largest lay Buddhist organization, which is the power base of the New Komeito party, says Mr. Hashimoto, who projected five years ago that 2009 would be the year that 21st-century party politics would take hold in the country. "Their survival was also helped by biased media accounts [that did not challenge the LDP] and volatile public opinion."

What could the impact be on Japan's foreign policy?

Analysts say the two major parties differ little in foreign policy. The DPJ states in its platform that it seeks a "close and equal Japan-US alliance to serve as the foundation of Japan's foreign policy." It also wants to expand the nation's overseas roles in the UN's peacekeeping operations. DPJ leader Hatoyama is known as an advocate of a constitutional amendment to revoke Japan's war-renouncing Article 9.

The DPJ has pledged to strengthen Japan's ties with China, South Korea, and other Asian countries. Japan's often-tense relations with China and South Korea were further exacerbated by Koizumi's repeated visit to the Yasukuni shrine, which honors about 2.5 million war dead, including war criminals. Since then, there has been a thaw, though many politicians still visit Yasukuni, and the issues of World War II "comfort women" and the Nanjing massacre of 1937 linger. Aso says he will not visit the shrine this year.

Hatoyama says he will not visit the controversial shrine, either; his party has proposed building a new, secular memorial that would lack the controversial connection to Shinto.

If the DPJ wins, it will bring only "cosmetic change" to Japan's relations with Asia, Mr. Kang argues. "I don't believe there will be a major shift since its postwar Asia policy is strongly influenced by the US."

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