PARIS - Global warming has made stronger hurricanes, including those in the
Atlantic such as Katrina, an authoritative panel on climate change has concluded
for the first time, participants in the deliberations said Thursday.
Scientists from around the world gathered in Paris, Monday
Jan. 29, 2007 to finalize an authoritative report on climate change,
expected to be a grim warning of rising temperatures and sea levels
worldwide. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is to unveil its
latest assessment of the environmental threat posed by global warming on
Friday. [AP]
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During marathon meetings in Paris, the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change approved language that said an increase in hurricane and tropical
cyclone strength since 1970 "more likely than not" can be attributed to man-made
global warming, according to Leonard Fields of Barbados and Cedric Nelom of
Surinam.
In its last report in 2001, the same panel had said there was not enough
evidence to make such a conclusion.
"It is very important" that the language is so strong this time, said Fields,
whose country is on the path of many hurricanes. "Insurance companies watch the
language, too."
The panel did note that the increase in stronger storms differs in various
parts of the globe, but that the storms that strike the Americas are global
warming-influenced, according to another participant.
Fields said that the report notes that most of the changes have been seen in
the North Atlantic.
The report ¡ª scheduled to be released Friday morning ¡ª is also a marked
departure from a November 2006 statement by the World Meteorological
Organization, which helped found the IPPC.
The meteorological organization, after contentious debate, said it could not
link past stronger storms to global warming. The debate about whether stronger
hurricanes can be linked to global warming has been dividing a scientific
community that is otherwise largely united in agreeing that global warming is
human-made and a problem.
Massachusetts Institute of Technology professor Kerry Emanuel, who pioneered
much of the research linking global warming to an uptick in hurricane strength,
looked at the original language in an IPCC draft and called it "a pretty strong
statement."
"I think we've seen a pretty clear signal in the Atlantic," Emanuel said. The
increase in Atlantic hurricane strength "is so beautifully correlated with sea
surface there can't be much doubt that there's a relationship with sea surface
temperature."
But U.S. National Hurricane Center scientist Christopher Landsea has long
disagreed with that premise. While he would not comment on the IPCC decision,
Landsea pointed to the meteorological organization's statement last
fall.