Greek deal can boost cooperation with China
Updated: 2015-07-15 07:47
By Constantine A. Papadopoulos(China Daily)
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Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras speaks to journalists of the Greek state broadcaster ERT during an interview at his office at the Maximos Mansion in this handout photo released by the Greek Prime Minister's office in Athens, Greece July 14, 2015. Tsipras defended on Tuesday a bailout deal struck at a euro zone summit, saying that although it had been "a bad night for Europe" and "imposed" on Greece, the agreement saved it from exiting the euro and must be implemented. [Photo/Agencies] |
On Monday, after 17 hours of negotiations, Greece struck an historic deal with its European Union partners to begin negotiations for a third, 86 billion euro ($94.83 billion), 3-year memorandum that not only will allow Greece to remain solvent, but also help restore longer-term Greek competitiveness.
There is no denying that the new agreement contains harsh austerity measures. The latter (such as increased VAT and measures to improve the long-term sustainability of the pension system) were made necessary by the easing of policies observed during the last 12 months.
However, at the same time, the agreement puts significant emphasis on wide-ranging pro-growth structural reforms for product markets, labor markets and governance. All of these are needed for long-term growth.
The agreement envisages the setting up of a new Greek trust fund which will be endowed with assets of up to 50 billion euros and designed to promote privatization more effectively and improve the governance of public assets. In particular - and this should be of interest to Chinese investors - this independent trust fund will receive, manage and privatize valuable Greek assets as part of a significantly scaled-up privatization programme with improved governance. This fund would be established in Greece and be managed by the Greek authorities under the supervision of the relevant European institutions and based on a legislative framework built on best international practices, adopted to ensure transparent procedures and adequate asset-sale pricing.
To help support growth and job creation in Greece in the next three to five years, the European Commission will work closely with the Greek authorities to mobilize up to 35 billion euros under various EU programmes to fund investment and economic activity, including in small and medium-sized enterprises. It is the first time an investment package of such size is included in this type of agreement.
The agreement also brings nearer the reprofiling of the Greek debt - a "carrot" which Europe has been dangling before Athens since November 2012 if Greece successfully implemented the prescribed reforms. Greece could be possibly given an even longer grace and payment periods for its debt held by European authorities within three months if it sticks to its side of the bargain.
If the deal is implemented with broad support in the Greek parliament, it could boost the confidence of both Greeks and foreign investors in the future of the Greek economy. Greek and international capital could start to flow back after a while; recently withdrawn cash could return to bank accounts; last-minute tourist bookings could go up again. In other words, the confidence effect of the deal after the turmoil of the last seven months could enable the Greek economy to return to growth by late 2015. The deal will run over three years, which means that, if properly implemented, it will give Greece a chance to fully recover from the damage done and return to growth and economic health.
Under these circumstance, stability, confidence and growth will eventually return to the Greek economy, as they had begun to do a year ago. This can only be to the benefit of China-Greece economic cooperation. In the years when the Greek recession was at its worst (2011 to 2012), China was Greece's 23rd most important export destination and fourth most important source of imports. A return to stability and growth in the Greek economy would provide a major boost to bilateral trade. Similar effects will likely be seen in the area of Chinese foreign direct investment in Greece. The boost to Greece's attractiveness to Chinese investors will come not only from the more favorable legislative framework provided by the agreement, but also from the stability, growth and overall security afforded by a strengthened eurozone, of which China has always been a steady champion.
The author is the former Greek minister for International Economic Relations.
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