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Export engine hums along

Updated: 2011-06-11 07:49

(China Daily)

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For those seeking clues on the health of the Chinese economy and global growth prospects, China's latest trade data are not of much help.

A trade surplus of $13.1 billion in May can be interpreted as evidence of the cup being half full or half empty. It is higher than that in April and shows that Chinese exporters are faring well. But it is less than expected, underlining a pullback in global demand that bodes ill for export growth.

Related readings:
Export engine hums along Import growth narrows May trade surplus
Export engine hums along Evolving export strategy
Export engine hums along China steps away from export-led growth
Export engine hums along China to become a net capital export country: Official

Exercising caution against reading too much into the data, which could change wildly from month to month, we believe that the world's second largest economy has kept its export engine humming and that is a good cause for optimism.

Exports hit a record $155.7 billion last month, easing concerns that the Chinese economy is slowing sharply.

Better is the overall trend, which is becoming increasingly clear, that China has been progressing steadily toward its goal of reducing dependence on exports for growth. After registering a record trade surplus of nearly $300 billion in 2008, the country realized that necessity and has taken concrete measures to rebalance its economic growth.

Latest statistics show that China's overall trade surplus in the first five months of this year was $22.97 billion, down 35 percent year-on-year. Though the monthly trade surplus has been climbing in recent months, robust import growth has eased the country's trade imbalance significantly.

With more than $3 trillion of foreign exchange reserves, the highest in the world, it is desirable that the country's trade surplus shrinks faster so that foreign reserves accumulate more slowly.

Nevertheless, amid mounting uncertainties across the world and a hard battle against inflation at home, the imminent challenge for Chinese policymakers is to effectively cool down some overheated sectors, such as property, without slowing the overall growth momentum.

In this sense, the humming of the Chinese export machine is a signal that one of China's key growth engines is working well and the international community has so far managed to hold trade protectionism at bay.

No less important is the growth in China's imports, which accelerated from 21.8 percent in April to 28.4 percent last month. Such higher-than-expected import figures indicate that domestic demand remains healthy in China, which is vital to global growth.

With several of China's major trade partners in the developed world struggling to prevent their trade imbalance and economic woes from worsening, it is still too early to rule out another global slowdown, if not a double dip.

Under such circumstances, we'd better hope that China's export machine keeps humming until domestic growth engines or other economies join the chorus to secure a sustained global recovery.

(China Daily 06/11/2011 page5)

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