Political man is a complicated species. Cultural conditions and histories differ widely. Humility in the interpretation and prediction of human nature is the wisest bet.

The evolving "Arab Spring", as the media term it, in the Middle East and North Africa is viewed through Western eyes as if it's the transformation of "Ali Baba and the Seven Thieves" into Thomas Jefferson and the International Court of Justice. This is a joke, and an insult to the Arab political man.

Western eyes are often shaded by ideological or provincial thinking. Other political cultures arise from different circumstances than the West and shape their thinking accordingly. Western democratic forms of government transplant only with dignity and are no cure-all.

The Philippines with a Western-style democracy has less economic development to show for it than any number of autocracies.

Even in the US right now, our sometimes elegant and venerable democracy seems on the verge of running out of gas. Its theoretical one-man, one-vote inclusiveness seems mostly notable nowadays for producing brain-dead divisiveness along partisan lines and thus gridlock.

The "Arab Spring" is especially complicated - and hugely important of course.

Regarding Egypt, almost all Western observers imagine that ancient civilization as evolving Western style. But we should wager a different outcome: Yes, people there are frustrated and angry up to a point.

Egyptians are volatile but not desperately irrational. They want palpable material progress and won't settle for less. But the ousted long-time Egyptian ruler Hosni Mubarak was not totally evil. Somewhere in their hearts Egyptians know this. They simply want choices and a sense of genuine hope for themselves and their children. What particular political form allows them to attain that is not as big a deal to them. They will be flexible on form as long as they get results in hand.

In Indonesia, the late Suharto was a dictator, to be sure, but he was no Mussolini. He left behind a mainly unified country now proceeding to develop at its own pace and style its Muslim democracy. It is a potentially thrilling story.

Malaysia is now in street-demonstration turmoil, even as the economy has been solid. The government's police-crackdown response has only made the country less stable. Just because politicians have been elected more or less democratically, which doesn't make them smart enough to handle the tough spots of governing.

In neighboring Singapore, Lee Kuan Yew, now 88, was no "Little Hitler", as a New York Times columnist once tarred that country's exceptional modern founder.

And so when Lee's long-ruling party garnered "only" 60 percent or so of the total votes, he felt the winds of change blowing in his face and retired from government for a long-deserved rest.

His country now moves slowly toward a genuine two-party system, but don't hold your breath and think it will become Switzerland or Sweden next year. In some sense, Singapore will always be Singapore.

A yearning for clone-like Western-style democracy is not universal. Neither is it wise. Surely Afghanistan would be better off with an "Islamic Lee Kuan Yew" than, say, a Western Jimmy Carter. Democracy fundamentalists who continue to believe Iraq is good to soon copy the British parliament had better not get their hopes up. Even if preying Iran decides not to exploit after the Americans exit, Iraq without some kind of modern Leviathan might just be ungovernable.

The political tsunami in Thailand, well illustrates the folly of simplistic thinking. The recent election of the opposition by a powerful 2-1 margin was as much about what the Thais don't want as what they do.

On the not-wanted side, the majority said they don't want military government that produces little more than ribbons for generals, and they don't want more than half the country left out of the inner circle so that the greedy elite can slurp up all the spoils themselves.

If a parliamentary democracy now headed by Yingluck Shinawatra, the sister of the incisive but controversial Thaksin Shinawatra, living in Dubai, can produce that change in Thailand, fine. If not, then further change will come. They might even rent a Lee Kuan Yew for a time if things don't get better.

People - from Arabs to Thais - want opportunity and choices. They want better governance, whatever form it takes; and they want a voice and a measure of participation. How precisely they get it is less important than that they do.

The point is extremely simple, even though human beings are not. If democracy provides progress, that's what they want. But what they are searching for isn't a political ideal but something more down to earth: a practical and credible political delivery vehicle. It only stands to reason.

The author is a veteran journalist and professor of Asian and Pacific Studies at Loyola Marymount University in Los Angeles. His book, Conversations with Thaksin, will be published in September.

(China Daily 07/19/2011 page9)