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The estimated 7 million cars in Beijing by the year 2015 points to extreme traffic congestion by then, given the limited room for road expansion.
Research by Beijing's traffic development research center shows that full capacity in the capital will be reached at 6.5 million cars. Now the city has more than 4.5 million cars, and at the present rate of growth, the total number of motor vehicles will be 7 million by 2015.
The rapid growth rate and high intensity of car use has added to the problems of traffic congestion and air pollution. It took only two years and seven months for the total number of motor vehicles to increase from 3 million in early 2007 to 4 million by the end of 2009, and the average annual mileage is 15,000 km, much higher than in many Western cities. More than 40 percent of car users say they drive even when their travel distance is within 5 km.
It is estimated that the average speed will be less than 15 km per hour during rush hours by 2015. So, how to ease traffic congestion will be a great challenge for the city by that time.
Encouraging more residents to use public transport is undoubtedly the most effective way. This can be achieved by expanding the public transport network and making it more convenient for residents to travel to work by bus or subway. Increasing the cost of driving is another way to reduce the intensity of car use.
Much also needs to be done to increase people's awareness that driving less not only eases traffic congestion, it also enhances air quality. Making everyone in the city realize that driving less benefits us all is the final solution to the problems caused by the excessive number of vehicles.