Hong Kong likely to face significant changes
Updated: 2014-10-15 08:25
By Zhou Bajun(HK Edition)
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In the wake of such large "Occupy Central" demonstrations, Hong Kong people are asking themselves: Will Hong Kong - our home - change after the "Occupy" campaign?
Over 45 years ago the city experienced a massive anti-colonist movement between 1966 and 1967. This resulted in significant changes to Hong Kong's economy, political arrangements and society during the 1970s. Politically, the government of the time introduced district councils and established consulting groups with the local elite to provide advice on policy making. Economically, the government moved its macro-economic management style away from "non-intervention" to "positive non-intervention". It invested in infrastructure projects and improved the investment environment to encourage economic development. The government at the time launched the Home Ownership Scheme, started a compulsory education system and began to provide public assistance. This helped move Hong Kong from being an underdeveloped city into a modern industrial economy. It ultimately became one of the economic power houses of the region - an "Asian tiger".
Of course, the immediate effects and historical implications of "Occupy Central" and the anti-colonial movement of the 1970s on Hong Kong are different. But, in a sense the "Occupy" campaign is also ushering in a new era of significant change in the city. So in this sense the situation in Hong Kong over next 10 years may be comparable with that of the 1970s.
I have reiterated in this column that "Occupy" wasn't a pure campaign for true democracy; rather, it is an anti-China movement aimed at turning the Hong Kong SAR of the People's Republic of China into an independent political entity. In the post-"Occupy" stage, the central government will undoubtedly guide and support the HKSAR government to adhere to the Basic Law and relevant decisions made by the National People's Congress Standing Committee (NPCSC). This will enable Hong Kong to adopt a form of universal suffrage. However, the opposition camp will continue to fight for so-called genuine universal suffrage and obstruct the SAR's further integration with the mainland. Hong Kong's political landscape will doubtless undergo significant change. The opposition camp will split further: Some will persist in opposing Beijing; some may join the "Love Nation and Love Hong Kong" camp; and others may step aside from involvement in politics.
Hong Kong society has reached a consensus and has to move from being a service-based economy to a knowledge-based one. Unfortunately, the share of GDP derived from the city's knowledge-based industries - after nearly 20 years of the existence of such industries - is still below 30 percent. This is far from the recommended benchmark of 50 percent. This is because the government still adheres to the economic policy of "positive non-intervention" and has failed to notice the considerable amount of restructuring by local industries. Another factor is that local businesses either lack research and development capital, or simply don't favor high-tech industry. These are pressing issues. Hence, political division is distracting society from re-focusing on economic development.
Numerous university students have played a role in the "Occupy" campaign. The majority of protesters on the streets are young people. While the campaign is illegal, the bitterness and anger felt by many of these young people should be taken seriously. Of course, these young people believe in Western democracy and this is one of the reasons why they joined "Occupy". But youth resentment in Hong Kong goes beyond politics. I myself made this point when I noted that while young people's demands for housing exceeds supply, increasing numbers of young people are asking for lower pay in order to qualify for public housing. The problems facing the property market are interrelated with the problems facing the younger generation. The government and the community should realize that the shortage of affordable housing is probably the single most important issue facing Hong Kong. If we really want to resolve the issues facing young people, then dealing with this issue is more important than constitutional development. The government has to help young people get jobs and achieve some upward social mobility. Only when the government addresses the causes of youth disaffection, will young protesters return to mainstream society and adopt a more positive role in the political process.
Hong Kong has made considerable progress in politics, economics and other areas since the significant changes of the 1970s. Now the SAR is facing another dramatic chapter in its development. The challenges ahead may well be more daunting than those of 45 years ago. However, Hong Kong now has great advantages that it never had before the handover. Today it has the support of the central government and the nation. That's why I believe that the HKSAR will end up even stronger in future.
The author is a veteran current affairs commentator.
(HK Edition 10/15/2014 page1)