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Can they get any sort of satisfaction?

By Michael R.Sesit | China Daily | Updated: 2007-10-16 07:09

The signature song of the Rolling Stones (I Can't Get No) Satisfaction may become the unofficial anthem of the 13-country euro-area.

Can they get any sort of satisfaction?

The European common currency reached a record high of $1.4283 on October 1 and is up 7.6 percent against the dollar this year. From its lows in October 2000, the euro has soared 71 percent against the dollar and 86 percent against the yen.

A strengthening euro makes goods from the region less competitive on world markets. It also means that European companies' overseas sales and earnings are worth less when translated into euros.

Odds are that when finance ministers and central-bank heads from the Group of Seven major industrial countries meet in Washington on Friday, the Europeans will give the Americans and Japanese an earful about not doing enough to buoy their currencies.

"Eurozone finance ministers will be plotting a way to try to get the United States to do more about the weak dollar," says Steve Barrow, London-based chief currency strategist at Bear, Stearns International Ltd.

The euro is about 26 percent overvalued against the dollar, based on purchasing power parity, according to Credit Suisse.

With their economy in retreat - gross domestic product fell an annualized 1.2 percent in the second quarter - Japanese authorities are in no rush to see the yen appreciate and hurt their export-driven economy.

Six months from now, the euro will fetch $1.45 and 167 yen, compared with $1.4184 and 166.34 now, Barrow says. In a year, he expects the euro to change hands at $1.50.

No doubt, the euro will weaken if Europe's economy stumbles. But that's not a scenario euro-area officials and executives want to contemplate.

Michael R. Sesit is a Bloomberg News columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

(China Daily 10/16/2007 page16)

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