H1N1 'will endanger' more lives

By Shan Juan (China Daily)
Updated: 2009-08-22 08:26

The (A)H1N1 flu will endanger more lives in the coming months as it spreads across the globe, and governments have to prepare for a swift response, a senior WHO official said on Friday.

H1N1 flu cases could double every three to four days for several months until they reached the peak transmission period, Shin Young-soo, WHO Western Pacific director, said.

At one point, there could be an explosion of cases, Shin told a symposium of health officials and experts in Beijing. "It is certain there will be more cases and more deaths."

Health Minister Chen Zhu warned that the risk of an H1N1 flu pandemic in China will increase in winter and spring. "The interweaving between H1N1 and seasonal flu could markedly increase the risk of a pandemic."

As the number of patients rises, drug resistance and serious cases, and even fatalities, are "inevitable", he said, warning that the impact of the flu on social and economic development could be huge.

WHO has declared the H1N1 flu, which has killed nearly 1,800 people worldwide, a pandemic. World attention is now focused on how the pandemic is progressing in countries in the southern hemisphere such as Australia, which are experiencing winter when flu cases normally rise.

But, Shin said, it is in developing countries that H1N1 poses the greatest threat because it places under-equipped and under-funded healthcare systems under severe strain.

Earlier, WHO estimated that in the next two years the disease could infect up to 2 billion people, or about one-third of the world's population.

Health officials and drug makers are trying to expedite production of an anti-flu vaccine before winter descends on the northern hemisphere, with experts saying they could be available anytime between next month and December.

Delegates from Bangladesh and Myanmar, who attended the symposium, appealed for help to procure the vaccines or make them more affordable for poorer countries, saying rich nations had made them vulnerable by placing orders for most of the available stock.

More research is needed to determine how vaccines should be priced, WHO "flu chief" Keiji Fukuda said, but two drug makers have already pledged to donate 150 million vaccines to poorer countries. Probably the most critical issue in the response to the pandemic is "how we mobilize the vaccines, how we get them to developing countries", he said.

Chen Zhu said China would have enough vaccines by the end of the year to account for 5 percent its population. Fukuda, however, said given the size of China's population, the country's vaccine makers have to increase their production capacity.