CHINA / National

China to improve efficiency, not slow growth: analysts
(AP)
Updated: 2006-04-17 15:19

Chinese leaders who say its booming economy is growing too fast want to cut spending on energy-guzzling factories and other wasteful projects, rather than slow its overall expansion, economists said Monday.

President Hu Jintao announced Sunday that the economy grew 10.2 percent in the first quarter _ more than 2 percentage points above the official target _ and said Beijing doesn't want "excessively fast growth." That came after the Cabinet on Friday called for new curbs on bank lending.

But analysts said that instead of higher interest rates or other measures to slow growth, they expect to see targeted efforts to force banks to screen borrowers and to enforce energy efficiency.

"The government has to walk a tightrope, restraining the excessive investment while not undermining overall dynamic growth," said Stephen Green, senior economist for Standard Chartered Bank in Shanghai.

Chinese leaders have warned repeatedly that rapid growth could ignite inflation or leave the country littered with unneeded factories and luxury apartments, causing problems for banks that financed them.

The government target for this year is 8 percent growth, though forecasts by outsiders range as high as 9.5 percent. The economy expanded by 9.9 percent last year.

Amid their warnings, Chinese leaders need to keep the economy surging to replace millions of jobs lost in layoffs at state industry. And the government needs the tax revenues to pay for ambitious plans to develop the poor countryside.

In comments Sunday to a visiting Taiwanese opposition leader, Hu stressed official concern about the "quality and effect of our growth" and about conserving resources.

"They're trying to create a sense of concern so that when the government goes out to banks and local governments and says, 'Here's what you need to do,' there will be some pressure," said Andy Rothman, China macro strategist for CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets.

The latest announcements come at a time when China is awash in a flood of cash from booming exports and foreign investment.

China has piled up the world's biggest foreign reserves, which the central bank says have reached US$875.1 billion (euro723 billion). Most is invested in U.S. Treasury bonds.

On Monday, a state newspaper quoted a deputy chairman of China's parliament, Cheng Siwei, as saying the government should reduce the amount of Treasuries it buys. He said China should channel the money into buying more U.S. goods, which would cut its politically sensitive trade surplus, the China Securities Journal reported.

 
 

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