Chinese leaders who say its booming economy is growing too fast want to cut
spending on energy-guzzling factories and other wasteful projects, rather than
slow its overall expansion, economists said Monday.
President Hu Jintao announced Sunday that the economy grew 10.2 percent in
the first quarter _ more than 2 percentage points above the official target _
and said Beijing doesn't want "excessively fast growth." That came after the
Cabinet on Friday called for new curbs on bank lending.
But analysts said that instead of higher interest rates or other measures to
slow growth, they expect to see targeted efforts to force banks to screen
borrowers and to enforce energy efficiency.
"The government has to walk a tightrope, restraining the excessive investment
while not undermining overall dynamic growth," said Stephen Green, senior
economist for Standard Chartered Bank in Shanghai.
Chinese leaders have warned repeatedly that rapid growth could ignite
inflation or leave the country littered with unneeded factories and luxury
apartments, causing problems for banks that financed them.
The government target for this year is 8 percent growth, though forecasts by
outsiders range as high as 9.5 percent. The economy expanded by 9.9 percent last
year.
Amid their warnings, Chinese leaders need to keep the economy surging to
replace millions of jobs lost in layoffs at state industry. And the government
needs the tax revenues to pay for ambitious plans to develop the poor
countryside.
In comments Sunday to a visiting Taiwanese opposition leader, Hu stressed
official concern about the "quality and effect of our growth" and about
conserving resources.
"They're trying to create a sense of concern so that when the government goes
out to banks and local governments and says, 'Here's what you need to do,' there
will be some pressure," said Andy Rothman, China macro strategist for CLSA
Asia-Pacific Markets.
The latest announcements come at a time when China is awash in a flood of
cash from booming exports and foreign investment.
China has piled up the world's biggest foreign reserves, which the central
bank says have reached US$875.1 billion (euro723 billion). Most is invested in
U.S. Treasury bonds.
On Monday, a state newspaper quoted a deputy chairman of China's parliament,
Cheng Siwei, as saying the government should reduce the amount of Treasuries it
buys. He said China should channel the money into buying more U.S. goods, which
would cut its politically sensitive trade surplus, the China Securities Journal
reported.