Why did China conclude that the spread of the virus had been largely blocked domestically?

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Since the outbreak of the epidemic, China has taken a very aggressive, agile and ambitious approach to fighting the virus, changing the dangerous course of rapid spread of the epidemic. With the efforts of all sectors of society, the spread of the epidemic in China has been largely blocked.

First, the judgement is made based on indicators such as number of newly confirmed and suspected cases, existing suspected cases, and cure rates. According to the data from the Chinese National Health Commission (NHC), as of March 29, many provinces including Hubei Province have reported no newly confirmed cases, no newly suspected cases and no existing suspected cases for several consecutive days, realizing “three zeroes”. The cure rate continues rising, while the number of severe cases and new deaths keeps decreasing. More than 93 percent of the confirmed patients in China are cured and discharged from hospitals. The cure rates in Wuhan City, the epicenter of the virus, Hubei (excluding Wuhan) and other provinces are 91.5 percent, 96.4 percent, and 94.3 percent respectively.

Second, the epidemic does not bounce back after work and production are orderly resumed. Starting from February 10, most provinces in China excluding Hubei has resumed work and production, following region-specific and multi-level targeted approaches to epidemic prevention and control. The average operating rate of above-scale industrial enterprises has exceeded 95 percent, and about 80 percent of employees have returned to work. About 60 percent of the small and medium-sized enterprises went back to business. Key industries and leading enterprises, including foreign-funded enterprises, resumed production gradually. For more than one month, the prevention and control of the epidemic has been effective and the epidemic has not rebounded.

Third, Wuhan, the epicenter of the outbreak in China, has largely blocked the transmission and gradually resumed social order. Through hard work, Hubei province and Wuhan city have successfully prevented the spread of the virus within their jurisdictions and beyond. The spread of the epidemic in Wuhan, the main battlefields of the war against the virus, was basically contained. Since March 18, there was only one newly confirmed case. Wuhan city as a whole is now regarded as a medium-risk region, and 5 districts of the city are at low-risk level. Wuhan is now speeding up its process of “restarting” the transportation network.

However, it should be noted that there is still a risk of a new round of transmission and spread caused by sporadic cases domestically and imported cases from outside China, and epidemic prevention and control is still under great pressure. There were 17 new suspected cases on March 29, and all of them are imported ones. In total, there are 630 confirmed cases and 165 suspected cases from outside China.

In the future, a very strict scientific assessment is needed to completely control and block the epidemic.

Reference:

National Health Council official website, March 29, 2020

Author:

Hao Zhirong,Center for International Knowledge on Development