The third is the National Coalition led by former Prime Minister Ayad Allawi. It is one of the rare blocs that include Sunni and Shiite members.

These coalitions will compete with each other and with two new groups that have emerged on the Sunni electoral scene. The first group, the Karama (Dignity) List, which is sponsored by wealthy Iraqi businessman Khamis al-Khanjar, has gained popularity recently as it clearly voices its support for Sunni protesters who have been accusing the Shiite-led government of marginalizing them.

The fifth main group is the Coalition of Iraq, which was formed by another businessman, Fadel al-Dabbas. It is a new coalition that includes several technocrats and is competing in all Sunni and Shiite provinces. This coalition is the most moderate in its attitude toward the Maliki-led government, compared to the remaining forces competing over the Sunni seats.

Geographical factors

In Iraq, winning support from local powers is very important in winning the election. Maliki's supporters are mostly from Shiite neighborhoods in southern and eastern Iraq. The Sunni forces are more scattered, and each force has its own specific geographic areas of influence.

The main electoral constituency for the United for Reform Coalition is in the city of Mosul, the third largest city in Iraq and also the largest Sunni city, where Nujaifi, the leader of the coalition, and his brother, who is the city's governor, come from.

The Al-Arabiya Coalition has influence in the provinces of Saladin and Kirkuk, while its influence has declined in Anbar, where many think that Mutlaq has been compromised by Maliki. However, Mutlaq has recently been trying to change this perspective, by being harsher in his criticism of Maliki.

The Karama List considers Anbar to be its main constituency, and is seeking to take advantage of the growing feelings of resentment among Sunnis toward the Shiite-dominated government and the disappointment in the performance of Sunni politicians in the government and parliament.

As the war between Iraqi political forces continues, the sectarian and geographic areas of influence in the elections are becoming clearer. Amid the reality of the political and demographic balance of power between the Sunni, Shiite and Kurds, political parties need to team up with others to increase their influence. No matter who wins in the Iraqi election, the post-election process is not going to be pretty. Geographical factors will become a determining factor when the parties negotiate to form a coalition. The future of Iraq's government is yet to be seen.

The writer is a Ph.D. student in International Politics at the University of Haifa in Israel.

This article was translated by Li Huiru. Its original unabridged versionwas published in Chinese.

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