WHO: Up to 2 billion people might get H1N1 flu

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(Agencies)
Updated: 2009-05-08 10:39

People react differently to the flu depending on their general state of health and other factors, he said. Some younger people in the Southern Hemisphere may be more vulnerable because of poor diet, war, HIV infections and other factors.

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A（H1N1）Influenza Outbreak

"We expect this kind of event to unfold over weeks and months," Fukuda said. "Really if you look over a two-year period that is really the period in which you see an increase in the number of illnesses and deaths during a pandemic influenza."

So far the A (H1N1) flu virus has spread to 26 countries. Brazil and Argentina on Thursday became the second and third countries in South America to announce confirmed cases.

Mexican dance halls, movie theaters and bars were allowed to fully reopen Thursday after a five-day shutdown designed to curb the virus' spread. Businesses must screen for any sick customers, and restaurant employees must wear surgical masks.

Fans can attend professional soccer matches this weekend after all were played in empty stadiums last weekend.

Mexico confirmed two more deaths, for a total of 44, while 1,160 people have been sickened, up 90 from Wednesday. Despite death tolls and confirmed caseloads that rise daily, Health Secretary Jose Angel Cordova insisted the epidemic is waning in Mexico.

WHO raised its global total of laboratory-confirmed cases to 2,099, from 1,893 late Wednesday, and said the flu also has caused two deaths in the United States.

This flu seems to have a long incubation period -- five to seven days before people notice symptoms, according to Dr. Marc-Alain Widdowson, a medical epidemiologist from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention now tracking the flu in Mexico City. That means the virus can keep being spread by people who won't know to stay home.

Laughing and joking, high school students gathered at the entrance of the National School of Graphic Arts in Mexico City, waiting to fill out forms that asked about their health.

Of 280 students entering the school in the first 20 minutes, two showed symptoms of A (H1N1) flu, including coughing and nasal congestion, said assistant principal Ana Maria Calvo Vega. Their parents were notified and they won't be readmitted without a statement from a doctor saying they don't have the virus, she said.

Students at a Mexico City vocational high school were welcomed with a hand sanitizer and a surgical mask. Joyful to see each other again, students embraced and kissed -- some through masks.

But some worried that the virus could surge back once young people gather in groups again.

"My 17-year-old daughter is afraid. She knows she must go back but doesn't want to," said Silvia Mendez as she walked with her 4-year-old son, Enrique, in San Miguel Topilejo, a town perched in forested mountains near the capital.

Working parents have struggled to provide child care during the shutdown. It forced many to stay home from work, bring their youngsters to their jobs, or leave them at home.

Each school, Mexican officials said, had to be cleaned and inspected this week. Complicating the task: Many schools are primitive buildings with dirt floors and lack proper bathrooms. It was unclear how students attending those schools could adhere to the government's strict sanitary conditions.

The government promised detergent, chlorine, trash bags, anti-bacterial soap or antiseptic gel and face masks to state governments for delivery to public schools. But some local districts apparently didn't get the word.

US health officials are no longer recommending that schools close because of suspected cases since the virus has turned out to be milder than initially feared. But many US schools have done so anyway, including the school of a Texas teacher who died.

In Asia, top health officials said the region must remain vigilant over the threat, stepping up cooperation to produce vaccines and bolstering meager anti-viral stockpiles.

The virus has so far largely spared Asia. Only South Korea and China's Hong Kong have confirmed cases.

Experience has been the spur to WHO to make sure the world is as prepared as possible for a pandemic, which would be indicated by a rise to phase 6 from the current phase 5 in the agency's alert scale. That would mean general spread of the disease in another region beyond North America, where the outbreak so far has been heaviest.

"I'm not quite sure we know if we're going to phase six or not or when we would do so," Fukuda said. "It's really impossible for anybody to predict right now."

Officials said the agency was likely to shorten its annual meeting of its 193 members later this month from 10 days to five because of the outbreak, which it was scheduled to discuss.

"That is under consideration," Fukuda said. "Sure it is possible."

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