October remains the month for political surprises

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(Agencies)
Updated: 2008-10-02 19:04

It didn't, and Reagan ended up beating Carter. The 52 hostages were released Jan. 20, 1981 -- the day the former California governor was inaugurated as president.

At least three books on the subject have the term "October surprise" in their title, although no conspiracy was ever proven.

Even though the month has just begun, the specter of an October surprise has already factored into the 2008 campaign.

Obama's campaign had to bat down reports that his former pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, was going to release a book this month. Obama distanced himself from Wright earlier this year after the preacher, among other things, suggested the US government was capable of planting AIDS in the black community.

McCain's running mate, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, stopped cooperating with lawmakers investigating her firing of the state's public safety commissioner after one joked that the findings could amount to an "October surprise" for the vice presidential nominee. Sen. Hollis French, a Democrat, later apologized for the remark.

US intelligence sources, meanwhile, have warned about the potential for another attack by bin Laden and al-Qaida terrorists, seen by some as a potential boost for McCain. The Arizona senator and Vietnam veteran has argued he has stronger national security credentials than his Democratic rival, a freshman senator from Illinois.

The same concern was voiced last spring by Harold Ickes, then an adviser to Obama rival Hillary Rodham Clinton.

In emphasizing the credentials of the New York senator and former first lady, Ickes said: "We don't know enough about Senator Obama yet. We don't need an October surprise. And (the chance of) an October surprise with Hillary is remote."

From Obama's perspective, an October surprise may have begun a month early: The turmoil in US financial markets that erupted in September triggered criticism of McCain's leadership and economic understanding, and polls showed Obama starting to open a lead in key battleground states.

That movement could be reversed in the two remaining presidential debates -- or by a true October surprise.

Kerry said any surprise deliberately engineered by one of the campaigns would be a risky endeavor.

"I think the media has grown much more suspicious of it because of the recent experiences," he said, "so I suspect there'll be a lot of scrutiny and maybe even some backlash."

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