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The agreement faltered almost as soon as it was announced in September 2005, and the North later walked away from talks in a dispute over a US crackdown on alleged North Korean counterfeiting and fraud.
There have been no talks since last November.
North Korea says it needs nuclear weapons and a delivery system to counter "US intentions to invade or topple the government."
US intelligence indicates that the missile was fueled in recent days, said two officials, who requested anonymity because the information comes from sensitive intelligence methods.
The United States assumes North Korea would perform a test, not fire the weapon as an act of war, and could claim afterward that it was launching a space mission, one official said. That would still be considered a violation of the moratorium North Korea has observed since 1999, the official said.
The test would probably take place over water and occur during daylight hours, the official said. The United States would probably know almost instantly.
North Korea is 14 hours ahead of the US East Coast.
North Korea referred to its missile program for the first time Monday, but has not said it intends to perform the test.
A North Korean state television broadcast, monitored in Seoul, South Korea, cited a Russian editorial on the missile and said the North "has the due right to have a missile that can immediately halt the United States' reckless aerial espionage activity."
The North has repeatedly complained in recent weeks about suspected US spy planes watching its activities.