Candid thoughts on South China Sea disputes

Can China and US avoid collision?

It was time for Peng's overarching philosophy of China-US relations. "You have written eloquently how the US and China can avoid the so-called Thucydides trap, where the rise of a new power usually ends up in war with the existing power."

Peng was pleased to present his grand vision. "What I want to stress is that while China and the US are indeed a developing power and a developed power, this does not necessarily mean that these two countries will finish on the path of head-on collision. They can transcend the trap of collision, too often repeated in human history. I have two theories. First, China is not an 'emerging power' because China is a big country with a 5,000-year civilization. These two great powers definitely have different historical backgrounds, but that doesn't mean they will collide. Why? Because in history, the rising power and the ruling power had divided or mutually contradictory interests. However, nowadays, the interests of China and the US are increasingly interdependent, mutually linked to each other. The second reason is that with military power today, no one, except lunatics, would wage unlimited, mutually fatal wars. I am confident that China and the US will avoid the trap."

After speaking with Peng, I reflected on what he had said. I'm told here in China, at all levels, that the country's peaceful rise will not change; conflicts are temporary. China has a massive stake in upholding the international order. Of all major economies, China is most dependent on global trade for which maritime stability is essential. That said, after a century of national humiliation when China's sovereignty was trampled repeatedly and wantonly, China today is not about to compromise its national rights.

Can China make a legitimate case in its historic claims in the South China Sea? Of course it can. But all claimants claim the same. That's the nature of border disputes everywhere in the world.

Personally, I believe the wealth of nations in the 21st century is more the generation of knowledge than the ownership of rocks, but I cannot deny that sovereignty is among the most basic and emotional of human group instincts.

Maritime boundaries, like national borders, were not dictated by God or set by the Big Bang when the universe began.

We must deal with current realities. To appreciate China's position does not mean agreeing with it. It does mean that to manage our world it is vital to understand opposing views－and this means understanding China's.

No party benefits from a blowup. In a globalized world, China and the US will flourish together or flounder together. A temporary solution is simply to maintain the status quo, let time work its magic. Candid communication is vital. That's why I appreciate General Peng, my new friend.

This interview with General Peng Guangqian is excerpted from Closer To China with R.L.Kuhn on CCTV News.

The author is a public intellectual, political/economics commentator, and international corporate strategist. He is the host of Closer To China with R.L. Kuhn on CCTV News.

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