For decades to come, no Chinese aircraft carrier will win any battles against the US or any other major naval power. But the sea trials this month of a converted Soviet-era carrier sends a message about how China sees its role in the Asian Century, according to High White in a commentary on the website of The Sydney Morning Herald on August 30, 2011.

China's carrier program is facing a conundrum, says High White, professor of strategic studies at ANU and a visiting fellow at the Lowy Institute, as carriers are very large, rather slow, easy to find and easy to hit. "The US Navy can certainly sink any Chinese aircraft carrier any time it likes - even in China's own front yard. And not just the US Navy: Japan, Korea, India - even Australia if we could only get our submarines to work - all have the capacity to sink a Chinese aircraft carrier without too much trouble. And others, like Vietnam, are getting such capabilities too."

So China has no chance of achieving sea control, notes White, as long as they face other major powers or even feisty middle powers in the waters around Asia. Then "what use are carriers to China, and why is it spending so much money on them?"

There are two possible answers, White explains. What is more reassuring is that "the Chinese are buying expensive capabilities that make no strategic sense for reasons of prestige. If this is so, it is good news for those who fear China's growing naval power, because the more money it spends on aircraft carriers that can easily be found and sunk, the less it will have to spend on submarines, missiles and other more effective forces."

The less reassuring possibility, White says, is that "China is looking a long way into the future, and sees an Asia in which it can exercise sea control, and use aircraft carriers to project power around Asia just as America has done". That would be "an Asia in which China has not merely displaced America, but replaced it as the dominant power in Asia", "an Asia in which China would be sorely tempted to use its power-projection forces to bend its neighbors to its will".

But China's carrier program only makes strategic sense, says White, if it expects and intends to be able to dominate Asia within a few decades.