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The problem is critical for India as well. Indian cities have been experiencing heavy inflows of rural migrants. They have not necessarily contributed productively to cities as much as their Chinese counterparts. Yet they belong to cities and have on occasions grown into influential political constituencies. Civic policies for infrastructure and public services require detailed knowledge of such migrants.
Determining migrant population faces the problem of non-disclosure. Incentives for getting recorded as residents of cities may encourage many migrants not to disclose their original addresses. Though these incentives vary widely between China and India, their effects on the migrant population are probably similar.
Problems are created more because of the existence of different categories of migrants. Some travel back and forth between rural and urban areas, while others settle down in cities in the medium term. A census needs to factor in these categories. Migrants are also difficult to track as they change addresses frequently. Besides, they create problems of double counting. The same migrant may be in two locations at two different points in time and, hence, can be counted twice.
The most challenging part of a census is to obtain accurate information. This depends largely on whether households and individuals tell the truth. This is perhaps where a census faces its greatest problem. Some people do not give the right information because they stand to gain from hiding the truth.
In China, such problems can arise for people with rural hukou and families with more than one child. In India, other than migrants, there could be problems in knowing a person's caste. The latest census in India is expected to build a national population register and issue unique identity numbers. These numbers will become multi-purpose resident identities. It is, therefore, essential that correct information is obtained.
As long as incentives for not giving correct information exist, it would be difficult to get to the truth. The Census Act of 1948 in India makes it obligatory for residents to respond correctly to questions. But whether the response is true or not can be verified only after several cross checks.
In India and China both, such checks consume enormous time and are not feasible. Questionnaires, therefore, need to be designed in such a way that they compel a person to give the correct information. And enumerators have to be tactful and skilful or else, such a large exercise may not be entirely meaningful.
The author is head of Development and Programmes and visiting senior research fellow at the Institute of South Asian Studies of the National University of Singapore.
(China Daily 09/07/2010 page9)