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So, should we still play the catch-up game?
It should be noted that the developed countries (except perhaps Iceland) have not yet stolen a march over China in hydrogen energy technology. In some aspects we are more practical and advanced than them. Hence, I suggest China concentrate on developing the ultimate energy technology, that is, adopt the catch-up strategy.
This will bring huge benefits to the country, because hydrogen is almost totally free of solid wastes and will reduce our carbon emissions greatly. Its use will help protect the environment and ease the pressure on the transport system. Besides, if the carbon tariff proposed by some experts becomes a reality, our products would be more competitive in the international market.
The catch-up strategy of developing hydrogen technology, however, could result in losses for enterprises that have already invested heavily to develop battery technology for electric vehicles. If this happens, the government should compensate such enterprises by helping them shift to hydrogen technology.
The government must be very careful in selecting its area of focus. But it should avoid choosing one that would force the country to lag behind the developed world and act as a recycle bin for outdated technologies imported from abroad.
In order to achieve this, it should invite experts from different fields and with different views to conduct thorough research and analyze the practicability, risks and costs involved in the different models. Besides, domestic researchers' opinions should have the final say.
As an economics scholar, I believe that only the model that conforms to the market demands should be adopted. Of course, the government will support the model it chooses, but in the final analysis it should let the market and consumers make the ultimate choice.
As an economics rather than technology expert, all I can do is put the question to the public without any recommendations, and hope more experts participate in the discussion to help the government make the best choice.
The author is a professor and vice-director of the research office at Central Party School.
(China Daily 08/23/2010 page9)