Op-Ed Contributors

Take climate warnings seriously

By Fu Jing (China Daily)
Updated: 2010-08-02 08:08

This must drive them to come up with a consensual roadmap that can help deal with the issue.

Over the weekend, I carefully read the negotiation text prepared by the secretariat of the United Nations' Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).

The 45-page document does show a strong commitment by the new UNFCCC Executive Secretary Christiana Figueres, who replaced Yvo de Boer last month.

Figueres has made many notes to push the negotiators to clinch a positive deal at the talks.

The wording of negotiation principles is concise and should be acceptable to all. But when I read the paragraphs pertaining to concrete goals and numbers, these were very optional in nature.

For instance, on targets to control increases in global temperatures, it says: "Reducing global emissions so as to maintain the increase in global temperatures below 1, 1.5 and 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels."

This contrasts clearly with what the Copenhagen Accord spells out: "We shall, recognizing the scientific view that the increase in global temperature should be below 2 degrees Celsius, on the basis of equity and in the context of sustainable development, enhance our long-term cooperative action to combat climate change."

The current text also says that the relevant parties should collectively reduce global emissions by 50, 85 or 95 percent from 1990 levels by 2050 and should ensure that global emissions continue to decline thereafter.

Developed countries, as a group, should reduce their greenhouse gas emissions by 75-85 percent, at least 80-95 percent, or more than 95 percent from 1990 levels by 2050, and more than 100 percent from 1990 levels by 2040.

And, while discussing the promises that developed economies should do to mobilize $100 billion by 2020 and $30 billion to assist developing countries fight climate change, especially island nations, the wording becomes even more unclear.

These divergent views on the issue of how to quantify emission reduction objectives or targets can only mean that climate change politics is evolving among the major players, such as the United States and the European Union.

Because of the US Senate's recent decision to abandon comprehensive climate change legislation, some are questioning how the US will meet its 17-percent emissions reduction commitment by 2020, from 2005 levels.

It is true that the EU is taking an active approach, since the environment ministers of France, Germany and the UK have called for a tougher EU mitigation target for 2020 - a 30 percent reduction in carbon dioxide emissions from the 1990 level.

However, there is a danger that the EU may take advantage of its technical and institutional competitiveness in dealing with climate change, as a political tool while talking to the US, China and other emerging economies.

Climate politics is now increasing and the above divergences are part of the realities facing negotiators at Bonn. Their task is more daunting and challenging than ever. It is clear that politicians do not want to exert their ambitious will into action.

How will the logjam be broken?

As I suggested earlier, the UNFCCC should arrange for an extra session to listen to stories of woe, such as those related by my mother, from the people directly affected by climate change.

This may help soften their stances and help in achieving consensus regarding emission reduction goals before the talks conclude on Friday.

The author is China Daily's chief correspondent in Brussels.

(China Daily 08/02/2010 page8)