Op-Ed Contributors
Debate: US-ROK drill
(China Daily)
Updated: 2010-07-26 08:27
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Does the joint military exercise presage troubled times ahead? Will tensions between the ROK and the DPRK ease or will they lead to a conflict? Two experts, a Chinese and an ROK national, enlighten us with their thoughts.
Lu Chao
Peace still has not lost its chance
The US and the Republic of Korea (ROK) are holding the largest joint military drill since 1976 after blaming the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) for sinking ROK warship Cheonan in March. The DPRK has denied the charge and condemned the military exercise.
The situation in East Asia has complicated further. The Cheonan incident coincided with the 60th anniversary of the outbreak of the Korean War. And now people fear that the escalating tension on the Korean Peninsula could lead to another war and Northeast Asia may lose its peace and stability.
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The US and the ROK hold about 100 joint drills every year, but they have not acted as a "deterrent" to the DPRK. Holding this drill in China's coastal waters, however, will increase Chinese people's uneasiness and anger. The spokesman for China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs has repeatedly opposed the ROK-US joint drills in the Yellow Sea.
Seoul and Pyongyang have shared an uneasy relationship since the ceasefire in the Korean War in 1953. In legal and technical terms, the war has not ended because a peace treaty did not follow the ceasefire agreement. And the Cheonan incident has heightened tensions on the divided peninsula.
But contrary to people's fears, the situation on the Korean Peninsula doesn't seem to be heading toward a large-scale conflict, let alone a full-fledged war. With the efforts of the countries of the region and the international community, it is possible to maintain peace and stability in Northeast Asia. There are three major reasons for this optimism.
First, the current international environment is entirely different from what it was 60 years ago when the world (most of it) was divided into two rival camps. Since peace and development have become the theme of the times, the US and the European countries don't want to be bogged down in recession again with the outbreak of another war. And even though the US and some other countries backed the investigation into the Cheonan incident, they refrain from military retaliation.
UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon called the findings "deeply troubling" and said he was confident that the Security Council would fulfill its responsibility of maintaining international peace and security. Since Ban is a former ROK foreign minister, his calmness may help control some ROK nationals' jingoism. Accordingly, a UN Security Council statement calls for appropriate and peaceful measures to be taken against those responsible, but by avoiding conflicts and not escalating tensions.
Second, neither Pyongyang nor Seoul wants the dispute to escalate into a military conflict, because it would be a big blow to the DPRK's efforts to improve its people's living standards and disastrous for the ROK's economic recovery.
Third, besides sympathizing with the ROK, a majority of the countries, including China, support a scientific and objective investigation into the Cheonan incident to find out the truth and have appealed to Seoul and Pyongyang to maintain peace and stability in the region.
The Six-Party Talks on the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula is an established platform for avoiding conflicts. Holding talks to settle disputes will not only help all the parties clarify facts, but also defuse the tensions between the ROK and DPRK.
That's why it is unwise to consider the resumption of the Six-Party Talks as an "award" for the DPRK and an "incentive for provocative actions". Declining engagement could only sharpen conflicts and would not be good for the settlement of disputes.
What's comforting is the presence of elements in ROK, despite the jingoists, who are appealing to their leaders to maintain calm. The Dong-a Ilbo newspaper and the Korea Times are two such elements. The Western media, too, have been trying to soothe frayed nerves on the peninsula. In an article, "Don't sink diplomacy", in the New York Times, former US State Department official Joel S. Wit wrote that, in the aftermath of the Cheonan incident, a return to dialogue between Washington and Pyongyang is the only realistic way to rein in the DPRK's "objectionable activities".
The Korean War was catastrophic for the people on the peninsula, and its consequences were felt across the world. If all the parties look back at the Korean War and understand the need to avoid another man-made catastrophe and value the hard-won peace and stability in the region, they can prevent history from repeating itself.
The author is a research scholar with the Institute of Frontier Studies in Shenyang-based Liaoning Academy of Social Sciences.