OPINION> Brendan John Worrell
|
OPINION> Brendan John Worrell
|
|
Time to Thai the knot
By Brendan John Worrell (chinadaily.com.cn)
Updated: 2009-06-29 13:48
Speaking to the Foreign Correspondents Club of China at the Ritz Carlton Friday afternoon, Thailand's Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva could've been forgiven for being a little off cue. After all he'd just spent the last 72 hours with China's political and business heavy weights and that morning just finished a meeting with President Hu Jintao at the Great Hall of the People followed up by meetings with local media. But if the foreign press corps were expecting fumbling and fatigue, forty four year old Abhisit (pronounced 'ahh–peace–it') was the consummate statesman, fielding questions with aplomb and the refined composure of the 'Eton lad come Oxford grad' that we now know him to be. With a Masters in Economics rather fittingly since stepping into the ring last December, his focus has been on the economy. But long gone are the glory days of 8% annual GDP growth that blessed his homeland for four decades since the 1960s. Since the Asian Financial Crisis hit the ensuing decade has seen annual rates half that and last year at a rate half that again. The fourth quarter 2008 GDP registered a 4.3% contraction and more recent the first quarter of 2009 a disturbing 7.1% year on year drop. But like many nations around the region and the globe, China's rise and recent growth particularly amid the recent global slump has provided a measure of assistance. Last year China was Thailand's second largest trading partner with about $US40 billion in annual trade and currently there's about $US170 million of Chinese investment in Thailand. Thus while in town PM Abhisit hit the ground running and didn't waste time, witnessing the signing of three agreements between China and Thailand regarding commerce, education and the importation of Thai foods. Intent on encouraging investors and tourists back to Thailand he conceded that this wasn't going to be easy considering the mid April disturbances. He needs to take on a range of players domestically to effectively manage affairs of state. Notably the red shirted, United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD) who seek the return of exiled Thaksin Shinawatra who beseeched supporters over the weekend 'not to let him die in the deserts of Dubai'. Abhisit must also manage a workable relationship with the military who have a strong presence in Thai affairs and more recently have been involved in skirmishes and activities that complicate his rule. Then there are the conservative elements or monarchists, best represented by 'the yellow shirts' who closed down the airport in Bangkok last year. Plus he has the perennial puzzle of the 'ongoing Muslim question' in the south and if that wasn't enough an urbanized middle class who seek better representation and are tired of traditional elites governing the country. Many question his youthfulness and understanding of agricultural realities bearing in mind the majority of his nation are still working the land and grappling with globalization. But I would contend at times like these you want the best qualified for the job, someone who can connect the local with the regional and get the best deal from the global. Essentially that is what Thailand needs to maximize the opportunities presented by a mushrooming ASEAN, a strengthening North Asia and the growing presence of China and India. Watching Abhisit speak my gut tells me he's got a good chance. A more cynical ex pat sitting next to me in the pit said it depends on who's pulling the strings. At 80 years of age the King of Thailand cannot be expected to galvanize the nation forever as he has done so successfully in the past. The current climate compels working across many fronts and this can be to – Abhisit's advantage. Alas, far from getting the red carpet treatment when he returned to Bangkok Saturday after visiting Guangzhou, the two will become sister cities soon, a huge rally of the red shirt variety was there to greet him, 27 000 in number. When I asked if he'd address the mob he good heartedly remarked, "I haven't been invited but I speak to them all the time. And I also listen to them all the time which is more significant." He'll have another chance to listen when he receives his committees' feedback on July 16th concerning reconciliation and constitutional amendments. Remember it was over a decade ago that 'the green shirts' who were attracting headlines rallying for constitutional reform. It has been argued that the tweaking of the system back then coupled with the Asian Financial Crisis led to the manifestation of Thaksin, one of the few mega rich that emerged in Thai society in the late 90's. His shrewdness in being able to work the new legal and political framework enabled him to concentrate power, while at the same time exploit the forces of globalization that was resulting in a growing disparity between rich and poor. All of which inadvertently led to the popular uprising against Thaksin in 2006 when he sold off the family/state telecommunications giant for $2 billion tax free to his relatives amid claims that he was becoming a rogue tyrannical elephant himself. This complexity, richness and juicy drama that is Thai history reinforces the present need for continual refinement of the legal framework to be able to bring in the various divided voices of Thai society off the street to find a workable balance – thus the anticipation towards July 16. For Abhisit he mentions protecting the poorest and most vulnerable, seeing a turnaround in the economy with an expected 2% growth next year and the unleashing of the second phase of stimulus, to create another 1 to 1.5 million jobs as top priorities. Since his time in office there have been about 30 by-elections and his party has so far won about 23. "All in all I'm here to say that despite the difficulties that we face, despite the challenges ,,, my government remains focused, remains determined and remains confident that the fundamental strength of the country, of our people – remains there and will provide the strongest foundation to make sure that we succeed in our endeavors." If he continues to triumph and tie the knot that unites his people which has sadly been severed in more recent times, then not just Thailand, but the wider region and beyond, stands to benefit from improved stability and prosperity. I for one have hope and faith that he will, ahh – piece it together. On Wednesday Thailand and China celebrate 34 years of diplomatic relations. |
