DPRK's moves driven by inner urge to power

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By Zhang Liangui
Updated: 2009-06-01 07:48

The situation on the Korean Peninsula has become increasingly tense since the beginning of this year. On Jan 17, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) declared that it would take an "all-out confrontational posture" against the Republic of Korea (ROK). On Jan 30, Pyongyang announced that it was scrapping a non-aggression pact and all other accords with Seoul. In March, amid mounting tensions, the ROK and the United States kicked off a joint military exercise, only to be followed by the DPRK's April 5 launch of a satellite - believed by the US and Japan to be a long-range missile - and Pyongyang announcing its permanent withdrawal from the Six-Party Talks.

The escalation of tensions did not stop there. On May 25, the DPRK conducted a nuclear test despite the opposition of the international community. The next day the ROK said it was joining the Proliferation Security Initiative, a US-led program to intercept shipments suspected of carrying equipment for weapons of mass destruction. Last Wednesday saw the culmination of tensions, when the DPRK renounced the 1953 truce that ended the Korean War and stated that the Peninsula has entered a state of war.

Many people are perplexed by the series of extraordinarily tough actions emerging from Pyongyang because they are unable to identify major events or causes that could have provoked the DPRK to resort to the extreme actions it has taken.

There used to be a so-called card-playing theory about the Korean Peninsula nuclear issue. Advocates of such a theory believed the DPRK was not actually developing nuclear weapons. Instead, it was showing its nuclear prowess as a trump card to draw the attention of the US and the international community and using it as a bargaining chip for negotiations.

DPRK's moves driven by inner urge to power

Many people are still trying to decipher the latest hard-line moves by the DPRK using such a theory. They believe all these tough actions are aimed at bringing Washington to the negotiation table because the new US administration, in its preoccupation with other issues, has "neglected" DPRK after Barack Obama took office. Pyongyang's threat of war against Seoul, they believe, is calculated to force the Lee Myung-bak administration to pick up the abandoned "Sunshine Policy" toward the North.

But as Pyongyang unfolded its confrontationist moves, suspicions grew over whether the DPRK was only indulging in gimmicks. The fact that the country has conducted a new nuclear test after its withdrawal from the Six-Party Talks proves the "card-playing theory" to be wrong: The DPRK was not simply bluffing; it has actually been developing nuclear weapons.

This has given rise to a new explanation by some Chinese academics: that the latest steps taken by the DPRK have something to do with its domestic political situation.

The current DPRK leadership, which has been in power for years, possesses extraordinary courage and the capability to deal with complicated domestic and international issues thanks to its rich experience and skillful mastery of strategies. This is an achievement not easily attainable for a future leadership unless it is tempered into preparedness over the long-term.

Thus, some academics believe, the current leadership is determined to shoulder the heavy responsibility of accomplishing the major tasks facing the DPRK to become a "strong and prosperous nation" before handing over charge to the next generation. This is part of the current leadership's effort to fulfill its "historic mission".

Among the major tasks could be to:

1. Turn the DPRK into a truly nuclear state. For nuclear weapons are a symbol of national strength and the hallmark of "a strong and prosperous nation". It also reflects the country's long-held policy of "giving top priority to the military".

2. Equip the country with mature short-, medium- and long-range missile technologies. This will maximize the strike capability of nuclear weapons and plunge "the enemies into trepidation".

3. Re-demarcate the marine border - between the DPRK and ROK on waters off the west coast of the Peninsula - as was formed after the 1953 Korean War truce was signed.

4. Push forward the cause of national reunification.

None of these tasks can be achieved by the DPRK without showing creativity and courage in dealing with the international community and international laws while racing against time.

This could explain why the DPRK, with a sense of urgency, has resorted to a series of daring acts within such a short span of time. If the hypothesis holds, the development of the situation on the Korean Peninsula, and even in East Asia, is worrying and fraught with the risk of going out of control.

The author is a professor at the Research Institute for International Strategic Studies affiliated to the Central Party School.

(China Daily 06/01/2009 page4)