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Whatever the draw, Brazil is the favorite to win
(AP)
Updated: 2005-12-05 09:34

The key to every World Cup draw is the seedings, the four bowls or "pots" FIFA divides the teams into, ostensibly seeking _ in the name of fairness and balance _ to avoid having one or two groups with several title contenders and others with none.

FIFA contends the seedings are based on past performance, but because the World Cup Organizing Committee determines the seedings, more than an eyebrow is raised when the final list is announced.

This year could provide even more fodder for conspiracy theorists. FIFA president Sepp Blatter has suggested the much-maligned FIFA rankings and qualifying performances may be used to help determine seedings.

Taking the last three World Cups and weighing the results so that 2002 is worth half, 1998 is worth a third and 1994 is worth a sixth, Brazil clearly sits atop the 32 teams. It won the 1994 and 2002 titles, and is the indisputable leader of the No. 1 seeds.

The other seven seeds, in order, are Germany, Spain, Italy, France, Croatia, South Korea and Argentina.

Mexico and the Netherlands are tied atop the second eight, followed by England, Sweden, the United States, Paraguay, Japan and Serbia-Montenegro (formerly Yugoslavia). Costa Rica leads the next eight, followed by Ecuador, Poland, Portugal, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Tunisia and Switzerland.

The remaining teams are gathered in a final seeding, six because they've never played in a World Cup (Angola, Ghana, Ivory Coast, Togo, Trinidad and Tobago, and Ukraine) and two because they've haven't earned their invite to the tournament in quite a while (Australia, 1974, and the Czech Republic, 1990).

But this is where FIFA is likely to wield its influence and "tweak" the seedings.

Germany is the third-lowest ranked team among the top seeds (16th), but as host already is guaranteed the top spot in Group A.
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