Azerbaijan's ruling party heads for certain victory
(Reuters)
Updated: 2005-11-07 08:50

President Ilham Aliyev's supporters headed for certain victory in Azerbaijan's parliamentary polls with Western observers set to give a verdict on Monday on the vote which, if damning, could fuel opposition protests.

The head of the Central Election Commission said late on Sunday that the ruling Yeni Azerbaijan Party has won nearly half the seats in parliament, according to partial results.

But a private exit poll by U.S.-based pollsters Mitofsky International and Edison Media Research earlier projected Yeni Azerbaijan with 56 seats, down from the 75 before.

The exit poll also showed the main Azadlyq opposition bloc, which led calls for protests, receiving 12 seats. Independents and minor parties, most of them government allies, won the rest.

An elderly Azeri woman casts her ballot at a polling station in the village of Balakhany, 15 km (9 miles) east of the capital Baku, November 6, 2005.[Reuters]

The opposition has accused the ruling party of widespread fraud and said starting from Tuesday it would stage peaceful rallies to protest the result. But some feared violent clashes with police who have said they will not allow any disorder.

Ex-Soviet Azerbaijan is an emerging oil producer in a South Caucasus region crisscrossed with smoldering separatist conflicts. Oil-hungry Western governments say they are anxious to see stable, democratic rule.

A repeat of the revolutions that followed disputed votes in fellow ex-Soviet republics Georgia and Ukraine was unlikely because Azerbaijan's opposition does not have the same wide popular support, analysts said.

A 600-strong Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe observer mission monitoring for election fraud was to give what Western diplomats say will be the definitive assessment on the vote at 4 p.m. (1200 GMT).

PARTIAL RESULTS

The ruling party claimed victory soon after polling stations closed on Sunday, saying it had regained its majority in the Milli Majlis parliament.

The election commission head, Mazahir Panahov, said partial results gave Yeni Azerbaijan 58 seats in the 125-seat assembly, with the main opposition bloc winning 5 and independents 33.

He said the seats had been awarded on the basis of ballots received from 28 percent of Azerbaijan's 5,000 polling stations.

Azerbaijan's parliament is elected through first-past-the-post votes in constituencies, not a proportional system. A candidate can be declared winner in his constituency before all polling stations have been included in the count.

Aliyev, who succeeded his father as head of state two years ago, runs a country of 8 million Muslims wedged between Russia and Iran. Corruption is endemic and the country has yet to hold an election judged free and fair by the West.

Panahov dismissed talk of fraud. "There was nothing during the election that was especially alarming," he said.

Western officials have said they are hopeful Sunday's vote will prove to be less corrupt under Aliyev, who has said he is committed to democratic reform.

But they said Aliyev was still struggling to stamp his authority on an old guard in his ruling elite which does not want to loosen its grip on power and may try to use strong-arm tactics against opposition protesters.

Ali Kerimli, an Azadlyq bloc leader, said his workers had seen ballot-rigging, police intimidation and arrests of opposition supporters.

"We will start a peaceful struggle to have the results of these rigged elections overturned," he said.