EU leaders warned a deal on an historic first constitution for the bloc might be out of reach as gloom shrouded the run-up to a decisive summit on Friday.

European Union diplomats said failure to strike an agreement at the two-day meeting could paralyze the bloc as it prepares to enlarge from 15 to 25 states next May.

After more than two months of hard negotiations on the text, which EU leaders hope will give the bloc more say on the world stage by creating the position of an EU foreign minister and strengthening the post of EU president, stark differences remained between big and medium-sized states.

"If I were to be a prophet today, there seems to be no possibility of an agreement," Polish President Aleksander Kwasniewski said on the eve of the talks, which are designed to streamline EU institutions and simplify decision-making.

Italy holds the EU presidency so it will be up to Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi to try to broker a last-gasp accord. Normally brimming with optimism, he said it would take a miracle to reach a deal, but added: "Sometimes miracles happen."

The core of the debate focuses on how much power the biggest countries -- Germany, France, Britain and Italy -- will wield over the others and how much integration EU leaders can swallow.

Spain and Poland are determined to hang on to voting rights that give them a disproportionate weight inside EU councils by comparison with their populations. Germany and France are leading the battle to get the voting power pegged back.

ONE BRIGHT SPOT

Britain meanwhile is fighting to prevent Brussels having the final say in issues ranging from foreign policy to taxation.

"There is no doubt at all it's going to be a tough negotiation," British Prime Minister Tony Blair said as he arrived in a damp, cold Brussels on Thursday night.

In one bright spot before the summit, Britain, France and Germany clinched an agreement on complex EU military planning arrangements that had caused nine months of U.S. concern.

Under the deal, the EU and NATO would exchange military liaison teams and the EU would create a small planning unit that could, under very restricted circumstances, run EU crisis management operations if the U.S.-led alliance was not involved.

The summit is meant to wrap up on Saturday, but diplomats say discussions could drag on into Sunday, reviving memories of a bitter marathon summit in Nice in 2000 that gave birth to the disputed voting system now under examination.

"I think if they try to play this (negotiation) long, Nice-style, you are going into huge difficulties," Irish Prime Minister Bertie Ahern told reporters on Thursday.

"It drives people mental. At Nice I was waiting for somebody to throw a punch."

Seeking to break the stand-off over voting rights, diplomats have suggested a slow-burning reform that might not come fully into force until 2014. Poland, however, is seeking to delay any decision on the vote question for several years.

Some leaders are worried that if they fail to reach an agreement this weekend, a two-speed Europe may emerge with France and Germany increasingly going it alone. Pessimists say it might even be the beginning of the end for the Union.

"If there is no agreement on the constitution this weekend, then Europe will end up in a crisis," Belgian Foreign Minister Louis Michel said on Thursday.

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