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Short cup base yielded long rally for Chinese Internet
( 2003-12-06 14:41) (Agencies)

Ask a friend to list some leading Web portals. Yahoo, MSN or Ask Jeeves might pop up first.

What about NetEase.com? Not likely, unless he or she lives in China or follows little-known growth stocks. Yet the Asian cyber gateway has outstripped most Internet names in share price gains this year.

It's part of a rising tide of Chinese stocks that reflects that nation's new love for commerce. The country's Internet population is rising as fast as its skyscrapers. Those 70 million Web users need e-mail, games and messaging services.

That's where NetEase comes in. About half its revenue comes from short message services over wireless handhelds. It's also a bigger online game provider than rivals Sina Corp. and Sohu.com.

Growth in those areas led to explosive revenue increases even before the stock's April breakout. Revenue grew 419% to 941% from year-ago levels in the prior four quarters.

In 2002, NetEase turned its first annual profit in four years, earning 6 cents a share based on First Call data. The firm bagged 26 cents per share in the first quarter of '03 vs. a 7-cent loss a year earlier. Analysts see $1.18 in EPS this year and $1.70 in 2004, up 44%.

The stock went public at $16 in June 2000, but traded below $2 a share for most of 2001. It started climbing again after the Nasdaq's October 2002 follow-through, reaching 17.90 by Jan. 21, 2003 (Point 1).

After that prior uptrend, NetEase shaped an 11-week base, correcting 44%. That's a steeper than normal decline, but OK considering the stock vaulted more than fivefold in three months.

NetEase climbed within pennies of its 52-week high on March 27, then traced a six-day handle (Point 2). The stock gapped out of its base April 7 on more than twice normal trade (Point 3). That day, it appeared in Nasdaq Stocks In The News and The Real Most Active. A quick pullback took it briefly below its pivot point of 17.82, but didn't trigger the 7%-8% sell rule (Point 4).

The stock surged fourfold to its October peak. It found support at its 50-day moving average a half-dozen times during its ascent. Those pullbacks offered buy points for investors who missed the first breakout, or let longtime holders add shares. NetEase gapped below its 50-day line Oct. 9 and appears to be shaping a new base.

 
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