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Analysis: N. Ireland peace road becomes rougher after assembly election
( 2003-11-29 14:48) (Xinhua)

Radical parties on both the Protestant and Catholic sides claimed success Friday against their respective rivals in the election to the Northern Ireland Legislative Assembly, bringing more challenges for the region's peace process.

The hardline Protestant Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), which strongly opposes the 1998 Good Friday peace accord, overtook its rival Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) and became the biggest party in the 108-member assembly by winning 30 seats. The UUP took 27.

On the Catholic side, Sinn Fein, the political wing of the Irish Republican Army (IRA), won 24 seats, followed by the moderate Social Democratic and Labor Party (SDLP) with 18.

The UUP and DUP are committed to keeping Northern Ireland in the union with Britain while Sinn Fein and SDLP want to unite the province with the Irish Republic. At the last assembly poll in 1998, the UUP won 28 seats, the SDLP 24, the DUP 20 and Sinn Fein 18.

The robust rise of the more radical parties reflects not only voters' disillusionment with the peace process, deadlocked for over a year, but also growing divisions between the Protestant and Catholic communities, analysts say.

As a result, hopes for a breakthrough in Northern Ireland's political stalemate now seem dim. The new assembly may not convene for weeks or even months and the re-introduction of home rule, rather than from London, appears a distant prospect.

Worse, the 1998 Good Friday Agreement + under which the assembly was initiated and the peace process agreed + is in danger of being torn to pieces.

Ian Paisley, the DUP leader, said Friday it was inconceivable that his party would talk to or share power with Sinn Fein unless the IRA fully disarms itself, ruling out any hope that the DUP may soften its hardline stance.

The DUP is widely expected to demand the replacement of the 1998 peace accord and the negotiation of a new deal. Sinn Fein has insisted that a new deal is a non-starter.

Although what some analysts have called the "worst-case scenario" has come to pass, it's too early to abandon all hope for peace in the region just yet. Few really believe the surge of the radicals will cause the peace process to collapse completely.

All Protestant and Catholic leaders, hardline or moderate, agree there can be no going back to the three decades of violence which had claimed more than 3,600 lives by the time the Good Friday accord was struck in 1998.

Moreover, Sinn Fein's rise is thought to indicate good, not bad, news for the peace effort from the Catholic side. Sinn Fein came out of the political wilderness by gradually softening its stance rather than turning more radical, analysts say.

Good signs also came from British Prime Minister Tony Blair and his Irish counterpart Bertie Ahern. Both were quick to voice strong opposition to renegotiating the 1998 accord during their talks in the Welsh capital city of Cardiff on Friday.

"It is not open for renegotiation... In our firm view, the Good Friday Agreement remains the only viable political framework that is capable of securing the support of both communities in Northern Ireland," they said in a joint statement.

The two governments are to start reviewing the peace accord in consultation with major parties in Northern Ireland next month. The UUP, although refusing to sit down with Sinn Fein, is expected to join the review.

Most analysts agree that this election may merely be the curtain raiser for a prolonged round of tough negotiations. Fears of a freeze of the peace process are rampant but concern that the province will descend into renewed violence is largely unfounded.

 
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