Pakistan, in the next 15 years, does not have the potential to pose a serious threat and China would be too busy trying to become an economic superpower to involve itself in military action, according to the Statesman, an English newspaper in India Sunday.

This is the understanding of top Indian defence officials producing the crucial 15-year long-term perspective plan for the ministry and the government, the paper says.

This plan, which attempts to assess what the situation will be in 2017, is in the final stages of preparation. It outlines the threat perception, both external and internal, the international situation as relevant for India and even some economic issues.

According to the paper, the strategists believe that nuclear Pakistan has no potential for serious military threats though small conflicts cannot be ruled out. The economic gap between India and Pakistan would widen in five years or more.

India is expected to become more superior economically and stronger militarily, but Pakistan will continue to trouble India, it says.

In the case of China, the assumption is that it is building up its economic strength to become a superpower within the next 15 years. As a result, the temptation to carry out military threats while the rebuilding process is continuing is likely to be less.

The paper says that there is a belief that China's rivalry with India could be more economic than military.

Some argues that China is rapidly modernizing its military and building up infrastructure, including in Tibet, and it could be a challenge to America.

It says that China's military strategy is also becoming more flexible with the creation of rapid reaction forces, adding that the Chinese Navy could become more active as well.

As a result, the paper says, India needs to have a strength that could be a deterrent in case of hostile intentions.

The perspective plan also aims to outline what kind of wars India could be fighting in the next 15-20 years.

The paper says that a full-scale war or "large-scale trans-border operations" is possible, but is unlikely keeping in mind the international situation.

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