HONG KONG: The employment situation improved for the first time in 9 months, with the jobless rate for the three months to August falling 0.1 percentage point from the record high of 8.7 per cent.

Economists said they expect the rate will further slip to 8.5 per cent or below in coming months because of the revival in the labour-intensive tourism sector.

"The mainland's visa relaxation policy has brought in an influx of high-spending tourists and delivered a very positive message to the market which helps ease the jobless strains and accelerate the economic recovery," said Tang Sai-on, chief economist with the Bank of East Asia.

Financial Secretary Henry Tang told reporters that he is "cautiously optimistic" about the prospect of the job market, noting both unemployment and underemployment rates have peaked and should come down.

"There has been a significant improvement in tourist-related industries such as hotels, catering, restaurants and transport," he said after the data was released yesterday.

Job vacancies from private sectors registered in the Labour Department increased by 13.3 per cent in August from a month ago, many of which were provided by new employers, he added.

According to government data, the unemployment rate in the June-August period stood at 8.6 per cent, better than the average market expectation of 8.7 per cent, with a provisional 309,000 people out of work compared with 309,200 in the three months to July.

The underemployment rate fell to 4 per cent in June-August from 4.2 per cent in May-July.

"It's an indication that the economy is beginning to recover and it should continue to improve," said Henry Tang.

The government has revised up the forecast for full-year GDP to 2 per cent in August from 1.5 per cent, encouraged by stronger-than-expected economic performance in the second quarter when the effect of SARS began trailing away.

"The employment situation will continue to pick up fast in the tourism-related and export-related sectors. We expect the rate will range 8-8.5 per cent at the end of this year," said Daniel Chan, senior economist at DBS Bank.

While the Bank of East Asia's Tang predicted the rate could fall below 8 per cent at year-end, Vincent Kwan, greater China economist of Hang Seng Bank, said any fall in the number of unemployed is likely to be gradual and the job market is still under pressure.

"The 20,000 to 30,000 people now enjoying the government's short-term training or employment programmes will have to look for jobs after completing the schemes," said Kwan.

Besides the 309,000 people unemployed, the market has to absorb the 141,000 underemployed, who are working less than 35 hours a week, he added.

"Only after the GDP growth reaches 3 per cent or higher will job creation be accelerated," Kwan said. He expected the job market to be stabilized at the end of this year.

The Hong Kong Hotels Association said last week the industry had hired 800 people in July and August and another 700 vacancies were set to be filled over the next two months.

A government spokesman said some 50,000 hotels rooms are under various stages of design or construction, benefiting from the tourism boom, which could create some 10,900 construction-related jobs.

More construction jobs will be available when the construction of the Hong Kong Disneyland reaches an advanced stage early next year while the work of the International Exhibition Centre at the Hong Kong International Airport will start in late 2004, providing an additional 2,000 construction jobs, the spokesman said.

(HK Edition 09/19/2003 page1)