Boeing Co, the global commercial aircraft maker, made a bold 20-year forecast for the fledgling but promising Chinese aviation market just before the opening of 2003 China Aviation Exposition. It predicted that China's demand for aircraft will continue to expand for the next two decades.

David Wang

"Last year, we predicted that 1,900 aircraft would be needed in China in the next 20 years. Now we have a higher figure. According to our current 20-year forecast, Chinese airlines will order 2,400 new aircraft worth US$197 billion over the next two decades," David Wang, president of Boeing China, told China Daily recently.

"This is still a very conservative number," Wang emphasized.

To make his point more convincing, Wang gave a simple comparison between China's GDP (gross domestic product) growth and the pickup in air traffic.

"I think China's objective of quadrupling its economy by 2020, with its GDP four times as much as it is today, is very realistic. Typically air traffic grows quite a bit faster than GDP. For example, this year, we expect GDP growth to be more than 8 per cent. Air traffic in August this year was 21 per cent higher than in August of last year."

Over the past 30 years, the number of air passengers, according to Wang, has increased 400 times. But Wang's envisioned sales of 2,400 aircraft would involve a passenger increase of four and a half times.

"Obviously it is very conservative. It is almost the same as the GDP growth. We do not want a wild estimate," Wang added.

In response to the "allegation" that Boeing is dishing out over-optimistic market forecasts to boost its sales, Wang joked that airlines were much smarter than that and that it was pointless to try to mislead them.

"Many people have said 'Boeing, you are baking big numbers so people will buy a lot of aircraft.' However, airlines do not buy aircraft because of a 20-year forecast. It is aircraft manufacturers who plan new products based on the 20-year forecast. The 20-year forecast is for our use, so that we know how to prepare for customers' needs," Wang added.

At the high-profile 2003 China Aviation Exposition, which is to kick off tomorrow, Boeing is to release more details of its proposed "super efficient" 7E7 jet, claimed to be moderate in size with fewer seats, more fuel efficient and comfortable.

Actually Boeing is to introduce the two 7E7s at the Expo - the 7E7 baseline and the 7E7 Stretch, which is for longer distance travel.

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