At the Dolce & Gabbana clothing store in Hong Kong's Pacific Place shopping mall staff are cramming to learn Mandarin.

Nearby, at Christian Dior, fluent Mandarin is now required to get a job.

As Hong Kong gears up for an expected flood of high-spending tourists from mainland China following the relaxation of travel restrictions, retailers are pulling out the stops to capture their business.

Already mainland tourists are being seen as the territory's economic salvation, capable of reviving everything from the job market to property prices.
"They'll change Hong Kong," said M.C. Lee, a nurse who was window shopping in the Pacific Place mall.

"Now a lot of people can't find jobs but Chinese tourists spend a lot so they can help the economy and create jobs."

Battered by four years of deflation and weak consumer confidence, made worse by the SARS outbreak, retailers hope shopping trips to the territory will become routine for many mainlanders.

Electronic goods, jewellery and luxury brands are much cheaper in Hong Kong, a duty-free port with no sales tax, than in China.

"Mainland Chinese spend more than other tourists," said Sophie Mak, assistant manager at the Dolce & Gabbana store. "They will come in here and spend HK$3,000-4,000 (US$385-513) at a time."

Citibank expects tourist arrivals from China will surge by more than 50 percent to 10.4 million next year from 6.8 million in 2002.

Residents of China's three wealthiest cities - Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou - will be allowed to visit the territory from Monday as individuals. Previously, they could only visit in organised groups.

And there are reports that Beijing may double the amount of yuan that mainlanders can bring to Hong Kong. Officially, they can only take US$2,000 in foreign exchange and 6,000 yuan (US$725) out of China.

The easing of travel restrictions is part of a series of moves by Beijing to boost Hong Kong's ailing economy that have gained urgency since huge public demonstrations rocked the territory's China-backed government in July. Chinese leaders hope public anger will evaporate if the economy improves.

MORE MONEY, MORE CRIME?

While buying sprees by mainland visitors are often front page news in Hong Kong, economists have mixed views on the impact.

Citibank predicts mainland visitors will generate HK$57 billion (US$7.3 billion) in revenues next year and has raised its 2004 gross domestic product forecast for Hong Kong to 5.8 percent from 3.8 percent.

But Merrill Lynch economist Marvin Wong said he doubts tourists alone will provide a magic economic cure.

"Inflows of tourists will benefit hotels, domestic tours and retailers and these are quite labour-intensive businesses so they'll bring Hong Kong people job opportunities," he said.

"But the economic impact might be limited. Tourism accounts for only six percent of GDP, that's not huge so we need domestic demand to pick up as well."

And there may be other downsides: some people fear there will be an increase in crime from theft to prostitution, or that a flurry of illegal immigrants will take jobs from local people, aggravating record high unemployment.

But that is not dampening spirits in the territory.

Shares of locally listed mainland companies are at five-year highs, partly on hopes mainland Chinese will open stock trading accounts in Hong Kong.

Property prices could rebound 10 percent next year with the help of mainland money, ending a five-year property crash, investment house BNP Paribas Peregrine has forecast.

Gold jewellery is a prime target of tourist cash - although John Lo, who runs Sai Man Co, a jewellery store in the Tsim Sha Tsui tourist district, is not getting carried away.

"Most of them will go to the factory to buy, they won't come here," he said.
But he is still optimistic that mainland visitors can change Hong Kong's fortunes.

"Even if they only buy sports shoes they will help the economy," he said.
(US$;HK$7.8;8.28 yuan)

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