One inthree will be 60 in 2030 (CHANG TIANLE) 09/27/2002 Shanghai is projected to have one third of its population aged over 60 in 2030, according to the Asia-Pacific Seminar of the Second World Assembly on Ageing.But the city actually became an "old" society 23 years ago. According to internationally accepted measures, if people aged 60 and above account for 10 per cent of the population, that community is considered aged. By the end of 2001, 18.58 per cent of Shanghai's population, or 2.37 million people, were aged over 60, nearly double the nation's 10 per cent average. As birth rates decline to low levels and adults live longer, the average age of a population increases and the proportion of older persons increases. The number of older people in Shanghai will expand dramatically over the next quarter century as people who were born during the 1950s baby boom reach retirement age. Another reason for the changing age ratio is China's one-child policy which was first implemented in the late 1970s. Shanghai people are more understanding of the rule and more willing to accept it than people in other parts. A new phenomenon is also emerging, which is that the younger generation, most of whom are only children themselves, are increasingly reluctant to have children, with some even choosing not to marry. The negative natural population growth in the last few years well demonstrates the trend. It provides another way to view ageing in Shanghai: to consider the ratio of people of working age, say 15-64, to people aged over 65. This ratio will undoubtedly drop dramatically. What does that mean? One consequence will be the growing problem of caring for the elderly. In Shanghai, this responsibility has traditionally been carried by the family, with only minimal support from national government programmes.
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